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气象:2016,42(11):1379-1386
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副高脊线的月内振荡对汉江上游秋汛的影响
(武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074)
Impact of Ridge Line of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River in Autumn Flood Season
(Wuhan Regional Climate Centre, Wuhan 430074)
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投稿时间:2016-01-18    修订日期:2016-09-22
中文摘要: 利用1951—2014年中国台站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过突变检验、周期分析等方法,研究了秋季9—10月副高脊线的年代际变化和月内振荡特征及其与汉江上游秋季降水存在的可能关联。结果表明:秋季副高脊线位置在1997年前后发生了突变,这与秋季副高强度的突变时间存在着较为明显的差异。秋季副高脊线位置发生突变后,与1997年之前相比明显偏北,且偏北日数增多,同时月内振荡也较脊线突变前偏强,与之对应的华西秋雨的降水量也随之增多。当其准双周周期较强时,汉江上游9—10月容易降水偏多;而相反地,脊线准双周周期弱时,则更易发生少雨。
Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data of stations in China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and using Mann Kendall method and period analysis, this paper analyzes the decadal variability and intra monthly oscillation of the ridge line position of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in autumn, and the possible connection with autumn precipitation over the upper reaches of Hanjiang River. The results show abrupt change of the WPSH ridge line in autumn happened around 1997, which is very different from the WPSH strength. After the abrupt change, the WPSH ridge line in autumn obviously moved north and the days when it stayed by north were more than before. Meanwhile, stronger intra monthly oscillation of the WPSH ridge line and increasing autumn precipitation over the upper reaches of Hanjiang River were observed. When quasi biweekly period is strong, it is more likely to be rainy in autumn over the upper reaches of Hanjiang River. Conversely when quasi biweekly period is weak, it is more likely to be dry.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306024、GYHY201306033和GYHY201306021)、湖北省气象局重点科技项目(2015Y07)及湖北省气象局青年基金(2016Q06)共同资助
引用文本:
吴瑶,杜良敏,2016.副高脊线的月内振荡对汉江上游秋汛的影响[J].气象,42(11):1379-1386.
WU Yao,DU Liangmin,2016.Impact of Ridge Line of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River in Autumn Flood Season[J].Meteor Mon,42(11):1379-1386.