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气象:2016,42(11):1289-1303
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风速等级标准与2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷强度估计
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081;2.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081;3.北京大学,北京 100871;4.南京大学,南京 210093;5.OU CAPS, Norman, OK 73072, USA;6.广东省气象台,广州 510080;7.江苏省气象台,南京 210008;8.江苏省气象科学研究所,南京 210008)
Wind Speed Scales and Rating of the Intensity of the 23 June 2016 Tornado in Funing County, Jiangsu Province
(1.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;3.Peking University, Beijing 100871;4.Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093;5.OU CAPS, Norman, OK 73072, USA;6.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080;7.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008;8.Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing 210008)
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投稿时间:2016-09-19    修订日期:2016-10-14
中文摘要: 文章回顾了不同的风速等级标准,对导致重大人员伤亡的2016年6月23日江苏省盐城市阜宁县龙卷灾害和2015年6月1日导致“东方之星”客轮翻沉事件的下击暴流灾害进行了较详细的强度评估,探讨了已有等级标准存在的问题,给出了未来工作展望。基于详细的现场调查资料,评估江苏阜宁龙卷为EF4级,而导致“东方之星”客轮翻沉事件的下击暴流仅为EF1级;对这两个典型灾害个例的强度估计展示了EF等级与F等级之间的差异;但阜宁龙卷导致的每一个受灾点的灾害等级还需要进一步详细评估。由于建筑物结构、植被自身状况、相应环境和致灾机制的复杂性,风灾强度估计必然存在一定的不确定性,且龙卷由于其复杂涡旋动力结构、气压空间分布和卷起的飞射碎片作用等因素使得强度估计的不确定性较下击暴流更大。提高风速等级评估的客观性、普适性、准确性、一致性和便捷性是评估工作的必然需求。未来还需发展综合考虑强度分布、路径长度和宽度、持续时间和移动速度等的风灾等级标准,从而为全面评估下击暴流或者龙卷的致灾性提供基础。
Abstract:This paper reviews the existing different types of wind speed scales, and rates in detail the intensity of the tornado causing heavy casualties on June 23, 2016 in Funing County of Jiangsu Province, and the intensity of the downburst on June 1, 2015, causing the “Dongfangzhixing (Eastern Star)” cruise ship overturn. Furthermore, issues of the existing wind speed scales are discussed, and future work is presented. Based on detailed damage survey data, the Funing tornado intensity is rated EF4, and the downburst causing the cruise ship overturn is only EF1. Also, the intensity rating of the two catastrophic events clearly shows the differences between EF scale and F scale. However, the damage at each site caused by the Funing tornado still need further rate. Due to the structure and conditions of different buildings and vegetation, the corresponding environments and the complexity of the mechanism causing damage, there must be an amount of uncertainties in the tornado or downburst intensity rating. Tornado intensity rating has more uncertainties than downburst because of the complex vortex structure and spatial distribution of air pressure of tornado, and impacts of wind driven debris caused by tornado. Improving objectivity, applicability, accuracy, consistency, and convenience of wind speed scale is an inevitable demand of future work for intensity rating of tornado or downburst. Comprehensive wind damage scale in future also need be developed to integrate intensity distribution, path length and width, movement speeds and duration, so as to provide the basis for rating comprehensive impacts of tornado or downburst.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)、国家自然科学基金项目(41375051)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)共同资助
引用文本:
郑永光,朱文剑,姚聃,孟智勇,薛明,赵坤,伍志方,王啸华,郑媛媛,2016.风速等级标准与2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷强度估计[J].气象,42(11):1289-1303.
ZHENG Yongguang,ZHU Wenjian,YAO Dan,MENG Zhiyong,XUE Ming,ZHAO Kun,WU Zhifang,WANG Xiaohua,ZHENG Yuanyuan,2016.Wind Speed Scales and Rating of the Intensity of the 23 June 2016 Tornado in Funing County, Jiangsu Province[J].Meteor Mon,42(11):1289-1303.