基于隐马尔可夫模型的中小河流致灾雨量阈值研究

沈军; 聂作先; 吴贤云; 郭海峰

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.07.010

气象:2016,42(7):865-874

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基于隐马尔可夫模型的中小河流致灾雨量阈值研究

沈军¹, 聂作先², 吴贤云³, 郭海峰⁴

(1.湖南省气候中心，长沙 410118 湖南省气象技术装备中心，长沙 410007 湖南省气象灾害省重点实验室，长沙 410118;2.福建工程学院福建省数字化装备重点实验室，福建 350118;3.湖南省气候中心，长沙 410118;4.湖南省气象科技服务中心，长沙 410118)

Research of Critical Precipitation Threshold in Small Rivers Based on Hidden Markov Model

SHEN Jun¹, NIE Zuoxian², WU Xianyun³, GUO Haifeng⁴

(1.Hunan Climate Centre, Changsha 410118 Meteorological Technology Equip Center of Hunan, Changsha 410007 Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Changsha 410118;2.Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Digital Equipment, Fujian University of Technology, Fujian 350118;3.Hunan Climate Centre, Changsha 410118;4.Hunan Meteorological Public Service Centre, Changsha 410118)

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投稿时间：2015-01-26 修订日期：2016-05-20

中文摘要: 基于数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)高程数据和D8算法实现了湖南中小河流流域子流域划分。利用洪水预报网络传播模型，构建中小河流各子流域径流拓扑结构并提出了空间子流域等效面雨量的概念。基于等效面雨量序列和径流观测序列，构建了基于时空概念的隐马尔可夫降水径流模型，并利用该模型计算了中小河流各子流域不同时间尺度条件下暴雨致灾临界面雨量阈值，最后利用2010—2015年实况资料对阈值进行检验，结果证明相比传统统计法，新方法的计算结果与传统方法结果一致且具有很好的准确性和稳定性。基于2015年6月的一次暴雨灾害预报，证明了该方法适应于业务化运行。

中文关键词: 中小河流，暴雨致灾，隐马尔可夫模型，降水致灾阈值

Abstract:In this paper, sub catchments of small rivers in Hunan are determined based on DEM data and D8 algorithm. According to the network propagation model for flood forecast of main rivers in Hunan Province, a directed graph related to the sub catchments has been built, which represents the topological relationship among these areas both in temporal and spatial dimension. To build the relation between precipitation and runoff in a reasonable space, the concept of valid rain area related to the flood graph is proposed. By using the valid rain area data series and runoff series, the hidden Markov model is built to calculate critical rain area threshold of flood disasters at different time scales in the sub catchments in Hunan Province. Finally, the observed flood warning data (collected in 2010-2015) are used to test the proposed method. The results show that the new method has similar performance to traditional statistical ways but is more accurate and stable. In addition, the successful application of the new method to the operation of forecasting flood disaster on 13 June 2015 further proved that the new method is suitable for flood forecasting.

keywords: small river, rainfall disaster, hidden Markov module, threshold of precipitation

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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41305056)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955901)和福建省教育厅科技项目(JB11115)共同资助

作者	单位
沈军	湖南省气候中心，长沙 410118 湖南省气象技术装备中心，长沙 410007 湖南省气象灾害省重点实验室，长沙 410118
聂作先	福建工程学院福建省数字化装备重点实验室，福建 350118
吴贤云	湖南省气候中心，长沙 410118
郭海峰	湖南省气象科技服务中心，长沙 410118

Author Name	Affiliation
SHEN Jun	Hunan Climate Centre, Changsha 410118 Meteorological Technology Equip Center of Hunan, Changsha 410007 Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Changsha 410118
NIE Zuoxian	Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Digital Equipment, Fujian University of Technology, Fujian 350118
WU Xianyun	Hunan Climate Centre, Changsha 410118
GUO Haifeng	Hunan Meteorological Public Service Centre, Changsha 410118

引用文本：
沈军,聂作先,吴贤云,郭海峰,2016.基于隐马尔可夫模型的中小河流致灾雨量阈值研究[J].气象,42(7):865-874.
SHEN Jun,NIE Zuoxian,WU Xianyun,GUO Haifeng,2016.Research of Critical Precipitation Threshold in Small Rivers Based on Hidden Markov Model[J].Meteor Mon,42(7):865-874.