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气象:2016,42(2):246-253
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2015年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2015
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-12-28    修订日期:2016-01-07
中文摘要: 对2015年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明:3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。ECMWF模式对副热带高压脊线位置预报较为准确,而T639模式对副热带高压西脊点的位置把握更好。3个模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,其中对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区。此外,3个模式对1522号强台风彩虹中心位置和强度120 h预报均存在不同程度的偏差,特别是对台风彩虹发展初期的强度预报明显偏弱。T639和ECMWF模式对静稳天气形势均有较好的中期预报能力,但ECMWF模式对驱散雾 霾的冷空气预报与零场更加一致。
Abstract:The medium range forecasts are verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from September to November 2015. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The ECMWF model has a good performance in predicting the position of the ridge line of western Pacific subtropical high, while T639 model is better at predicting the position of west ridge point. The three models do well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, and the temperature forecast biases for southern China are smaller than for northern China. As far as Typhoon Mujigae (No.1522) is concerned, the three models show different biases in its track and intensity forecasts, especially they are weak in the intensity forecasting at the early stage of the typhoon. T639 and ECMWF perform better in forecasting medium range static stability weather, while ECMWF does even better than T639 when forecasting cold airs that disperse fog and haze.
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张峰,2016.2015年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,42(2):246-253.
ZHANG Feng,2016.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2015[J].Meteor Mon,42(2):246-253.