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投稿时间：2014-04-22 修订日期：2015-07-14
投稿时间：2014-04-22 修订日期：2015-07-14
中文摘要: 本文从总误差、逐年趋势、误差分布等方面对2001—2012年中央气象台（Central Meteorological Observatory, CMO）的台风（TC）强度综合预报水平进行分析，初步分析了强度迅速变化台风预报偏差大的原因。结果表明，强度预报水平没有明显改善，预报误差呈现逐年波动状态，强度稳定TC的预报误差最小，迅速加强TC的预报误差最大。24、96~120 h预报偏强的概率较大，而48~72 h预报偏弱的概率大。南海东北部等海域的预报误差较大，应在业务预报中特别予以关注。随着TC强度的逐渐增强，强度预报在120 h内预报偏强的可能性变大，而强度预报偏弱的可能性减小。根据误差分析结果，提出了一个强度概率预报方案，检验结果表明可在业务中参考使用。
中文关键词: 台风, 强度, 预报误差, 概率预报
Abstract:Intensity forecast errors are analyzed according to the official forecasts from the Central Meteorological Observatory (CMO) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for typhoons in the western North Pacific during 2001-2012. It is shown that no significant improvement can be observed during the 12 years with undulating annual mean errors. The forecast errors are relatively small for steady intensity change process, but large for rapid intensity change process. There is a high probability for the forecasts to be stronger (weaker) than the observations at the leading time of 24, 96 and 120 h (48 and 72 h). It should be noted that the forecast errors are larger at the northeastern part of the South China Sea than other locations. The probability of the forecast intensity being stronger than the observations in 120 h is increased with the increase of typhoon intensity. The threshold error values of 70% accumulated probability are calculated for typhoons in different intensity and moving speed categories and a probability intensity forecast scheme is proposed to provide a guidance with an estimation of the forecast errors.
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基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006008）资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHANG Shoufeng | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
| YU Hui | Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 |
| XIANG Chunyi | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
张守峰,余晖,向纯怡,2015.中央气象台台风强度综合预报误差分析[J].气象,41(10):1278-1285.
ZHANG Shoufeng,YU Hui,XIANG Chunyi,2015.Error Analysis on Official Typhoon Intensity Forecasts of CMO from 2001 to 2012[J].Meteor Mon,41(10):1278-1285.
张守峰,余晖,向纯怡,2015.中央气象台台风强度综合预报误差分析[J].气象,41(10):1278-1285.
ZHANG Shoufeng,YU Hui,XIANG Chunyi,2015.Error Analysis on Official Typhoon Intensity Forecasts of CMO from 2001 to 2012[J].Meteor Mon,41(10):1278-1285.