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气象:2015,41(7):907-914
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2014/2015年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Features and Possible Causes for East Asian Winter Monsoon in 2014/2015
(National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-04-20    修订日期:2015-05-27
中文摘要: 2014/2015年东亚冬季风强度较常年同期略偏弱,季内冬季风强弱转换阶段性特征明显,初冬强度偏强,隆冬和后冬转为偏弱。受其影响,冬季全国大部分地区气温较常年同期偏高,但季内变化显著,初冬冷、隆冬和后冬暖。进一步研究表明,冬季风强度偏弱与2014年9月北极海冰范围偏大(去线性趋势)有关,前期北极海冰偏大不利于西伯利亚高压偏强,进而导致冬季风偏弱和冬季气温偏高。中部型尼尔尼诺(El Ni〖AKn~D〗o)和太平洋十年振荡(PDO)暖位相的配合是造成冬季风强度偏弱的另一个重要外强迫。PDO位相在El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件对东亚冬季风的影响中起调制作用,赤道中太平洋暖海温有利于偏南风距平控制我国东部及东部沿海地区,东亚冬季风强度偏弱,当PDO暖位相和El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件协同作用时,东亚地区大气环流对El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件的响应更加显著。东亚冬季风的季内变化则与大气对中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件的响应过程有关。
Abstract:The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) was weaker than normal during the 2014/2015 winter with a phase transition from strong to weak at the end of December 2014. A warmer winter was experienced in most areas of China due to the effect of weaker EAWM. In association with the phase transition of EAWM, a reverse of temperature anomalies over China occurred simultaneously with negative temperature anomalies in December 2014 and positive temperature anomalies in January and February 2015. Further study indicates that the weakening of EAWM is related to the extension of Arctic sea ice cover (without linear trend) in September 2014. The expanded sea ice coverage before winter restrains the development of Siberian high, leading to a weaker EAWM and a warmer winter over China. Besides, the combination of central Pacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o and positive phase of PDO is also important in reducing the intensity of EAWM. The phase of PDO has an influence on the effect of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o on EAWM. Positive anomalies of SST over central Pacific is favorable for the negative anomalies of meridional wind over the east and eastern coast of China and a weak EAWM. El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event tends to exert stronger influence on the circulation over East Asia when the event is accompanied with a positive phase of PDO. The intraseasonal variation of EAWM is related to the response of atmosphere to El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41205042)、国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955901)和中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015Z11)共同资助
引用文本:
王东阡,崔童,司东,卲勰,李清泉,孙丞虎,2015.2014/2015年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析[J].气象,41(7):907-914.
WANG Dongqian,CUI Tong,SI Dong,SHAO Xie,LI Qingquan,SUN Chenghu,2015.Features and Possible Causes for East Asian Winter Monsoon in 2014/2015[J].Meteor Mon,41(7):907-914.