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投稿时间：2014-10-29 修订日期：2014-12-11
投稿时间：2014-10-29 修订日期：2014-12-11
中文摘要: 利用安徽省1971—2010年的气象资料和冬小麦产量资料，采用水分盈亏指数分析了安徽省冬小麦全生育期和关键期（孕穗至乳熟期）水分盈亏的时空变化特征，以及旱涝对产量的影响。结果表明：冬小麦全生育期和关键期水分盈亏指数基本呈纬向分布，合肥以北水分亏缺明显，江淮南部及其以南地区水分供应基本充足，越往南水分盈余程度越大，总体来看缺水程度关键期大于全生育期；近40年冬小麦水分盈亏指数的时间变化趋势不明显，但年际波动大，旱涝灾害风险增加。干旱主要发生在沿淮淮北地区，涝渍在江淮及其以南地区发生频率较高，典型旱涝年平均减产率分别为4.2%和12.4%；造成冬小麦减产10%的中度旱灾风险北部大于南部，中度涝灾风险南部大于北部。南部涝渍风险和造成的产量损失明显大于北部的干旱，水分偏多的南部地区要尽量减少冬小麦的种植。
中文关键词: 冬小麦， 水分盈亏， 时空变化， 减产
Abstract:Based on the meteorological data and the winter wheat yield data of 78 weather stations in Anhui Province from 1971 to 2010, the spatiotemporal variation of the water budget during the whole growth period and critical period of winter wheat (from booting to milk ripening stages) in Anhui Province was analyzed using the water budget index. The occurrence of droughts and floods and its impact on the winter wheat yield was also analyzed using the water budget index as the drought flood indicator. The results showed that the water budget index during the whole growth period and critical period of the winter wheat presents zonal distribution and decreases from south to north. The water deficit occurs significantly in the area north to Hefei and the water supply is adequate in the southern part of the Yangtze Huaihe Area and the region south to this area, with large water surplus in south and small in north. On the whole, the water shortage degree is greater in the critical period than in the whole growth period. The change trend of the water budget index is not significant during the past 40 years. However, the interannual variation of the water budget index is obvious due to the large variation coefficient of the precipitation, increasing the risk of droughts and floods. The drought occurs mainly in the area along Huaihe River and the part north to the river. The frequency of waterlogging is higher in the Yangtze Huaihe Area and the region south. The average yield reduction rates of the winter wheat due to the drought and the flood are 4.2% and 12.4%, respectively. There is a significantly positive (negative) correlation between water budget index and relative meteorological yield in typical drought (flood) year of winter wheat. The medium drought risk of winter wheat is greater in north area than in south area, and the medium waterlogging risk is greater in south area. It is necessary to minimize the planting of the winter wheat in the south area where water is more because the yield loss caused by the waterlogging is greater than the drought.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006027)和国家科技支撑计划(2012BAD04B09)共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 张浩 | 安徽省气象科学研究所，安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室，合肥 230031 |
| 马晓群 | 安徽省气象科学研究所，安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室，合肥 230031 |
| 王晓东 | 安徽省气象科学研究所，安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室，合肥 230031 |
引用文本：
张浩,马晓群,王晓东,2015.安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响[J].气象,41(7):899-906.
ZHANG Hao,MA Xiaoqun,WANG Xiaodong,2015.Water Budget Characteristics of Winter Wheat and Its Impact on the Yield in Anhui Province[J].Meteor Mon,41(7):899-906.
张浩,马晓群,王晓东,2015.安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响[J].气象,41(7):899-906.
ZHANG Hao,MA Xiaoqun,WANG Xiaodong,2015.Water Budget Characteristics of Winter Wheat and Its Impact on the Yield in Anhui Province[J].Meteor Mon,41(7):899-906.