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气象:2014,40(8):1026-1032
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2014年5月大气环流和天气分析
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Analysis of Atmosphere Circulation and Weather in May 2014
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2014-06-26    修订日期:2014-07-01
中文摘要: 为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2014年3—5月T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF(简称EC)和日本模式(简称JP)进行了对比分析。结果表明:3家模式均对亚洲中高纬大气环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能,并且可以较好地预报出南支槽东移演变的过程;对于850 hPa温度场,ECMWF模式的预报效果要明显优于T639和日本模式;另外,选取了2014年4月22—24日的强沙尘暴过程进行个例分析,发现ECMWF模式对此次过程的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义最好。
Abstract:The main characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation in May 2014 are as follows: There is one polar vortex center in the Northern Hemisphere, and the intensity is 524 dagpm, 4-6 dagpm stronger than normal years. The 500 hPa geopotential height presents distribution of a four wave pattern in high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, and the most areas in the eastern region of China are controlled by west air flow, causing more short wave trough activities. Subtropical high is more westward and northward than normal, which is the main cause for the extreme precipitation seen many times in South China. Monsoon starts later than normal years over South China Sea. The monthly mean temperature is 16.5℃, 0.3℃ higher than normal. The monthly mean precipitation amount is 73.8 mm, which is 6.2% more than normal. The main weather characteristics in this month is as follows: Torrential rainfalls occur in Southern China frequently, and extreme high temperatures appear in Northern China.
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蔡雪薇,张芳华,2014.2014年5月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,40(8):1026-1032.
CAI Xuewei,ZHANG Fanghua,2014.Analysis of Atmosphere Circulation and Weather in May 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(8):1026-1032.