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投稿时间：2014-06-23 修订日期：2014-07-02
投稿时间：2014-06-23 修订日期：2014-07-02
中文摘要: 为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品，对2014年3—5月T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF(简称EC)和日本模式(简称JP)进行了对比分析。结果表明：3家模式均对亚洲中高纬大气环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能，并且可以较好地预报出南支槽东移演变的过程；对于850 hPa温度场，ECMWF模式的预报效果要明显优于T639和日本模式；另外，选取了2014年4月22—24日的强沙尘暴过程进行个例分析，发现ECMWF模式对此次过程的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义最好。
中文关键词: T639模式， 中期天气预报， 天气学检验
Abstract:In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasts in spring 2014 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the larger scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas and the evolution of southern branch trough. For the prediction of temperature at 850 hPa, ECMWF shows a better performance than the other two models. Taking the sandstorm process during the period of April 22-24, 2014 as a case, it is found that ECMWF is more effective than the other two models in medium range forecasts of strong surface wind causing the sandstorm weather process.
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| Author Name | Affiliation |
| LIU Weiyi | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
刘为一,2014.2014年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(8):1019-1025.
LIU Weiyi,2014.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasts for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(8):1019-1025.
刘为一,2014.2014年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(8):1019-1025.
LIU Weiyi,2014.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasts for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(8):1019-1025.