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气象:2014,40(4):466-472
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G2 京津塘高速公路交通气象安全指数的预报研究
(北京市气象局,北京 100089)
Research on Forecast of Traffic Weather Safety Index for Jingjintang Highway
(Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2012-12-21    修订日期:2013-09-18
中文摘要: 通过整理G2京津塘高速公路2年(2007年7月1日至2009年6月30日)逐月逐时的万辆车流的交通事故和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将各月平均万辆车流的交通事故(交通事故与交通流量之商)与同步综合气象参数进行日变化相关分析。结果表明:各月平均万辆车流交通事故量的日变化趋势为双峰型,主高峰出现在05—07时,次高峰出现在21—23时。2年平均高峰值为每万辆1.8起。各月的逐时平均万辆车流的交通事故与同步综合气象参数呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关、自然指数相关或线性相关,即万辆车流的交通事故随综合气象参数的加大而增多。为了提高高速公路交通安全的气象服务水平,建立了4个交通气象风险和交通气象安全指数的级别;应用WRF RUC数值预报产品对2个月逐日的独立样本模拟预报交通气象安全指数,其月平均基本准确率为62.5%~95.8%。此结果为高速公路交通提供客观的科学依据,在华北地区的高速公路气象服务中具有一定的推广价值。
Abstract:Based on the analysis of the monthly and daily traffic accidents rate of per 10 000 vehicle (TAR) and meteorological elements over two years (01/01/2007-30/01/2009) observed from Jingjintang Highway, the correlation analysis is done on diurnal variation between mean TAR and integrated meteorological parameter (IMP). The results show that the diurnal variation of accident in each month usually has two peaks. The mainly peak occurs during 05:00-07:00 BT, and the second peak during 21:00-23:00 BT. The maximum annual average accident can reach to 1.8 TAR. The mean hourly TAR in each month has some relationship in parabola, exponential, or linear with the IMP that means the TAR has the same trend with IMP. To improve traffic weather service for highway, a four level traffic weather risk and safety index is set up. The simulated forecast of diurnal IMP of two months is applied by utilizing a WRF based NWP outputs, whose mean monthly accuracy is 62.5% and 95.8% respectively. This result provides reasonable basis for highway safety management and has wide spread application value for highway traffic weather service in Huabei Region.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306043)和北京市气象局精细化预报服务和业务平台创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
李迅,甘璐,丁德平,张德山,尹炤寅,2014.G2 京津塘高速公路交通气象安全指数的预报研究[J].气象,40(4):466-472.
LI Xun,GAN Lu,DING Deping,ZHANG Deshan,YIN Zhaoyin,2014.Research on Forecast of Traffic Weather Safety Index for Jingjintang Highway[J].Meteor Mon,40(4):466-472.