滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究

段鹤; 严华生; 马学文; 罗庆仙; 刘建平

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.02.005

气象:2014,40(2):174-185

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滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究

段鹤^1,2, 严华生², 马学文¹, 罗庆仙¹, 刘建平¹

(1.云南省普洱市气象局，普洱 665000;2.云南大学大气科学系,昆明 650091)

Study of the Method for Hail Forecasting and Warning in Southern Yunnan

DUAN He^1,2, YAN Huasheng², MA Xuewen¹, LUO Qingxian¹, LIU Jianping¹

(1.Puer Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Puer 665000;2.Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091)

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投稿时间：2012-12-02 修订日期：2013-05-08

中文摘要: 利用普洱市探空资料、CIND3830 CC新一代天气雷达资料、地面观测资料，对2004—2011年滇南普洱、西双版纳冰雹天气过程进行统计分析，总结出冰雹4个预报指标：(1)当单体回波满足冰雹云的初始特征和发展阶段特征时，可预报未来出现冰雹的可能较大，预报提前60 min以内；(2)当回波的组合反射率≥55 dBz、宽度≥12.0 km、梯度≥15 dBz·km-1、H45 dBz≥7.5 km、2—5月H45 dBz-H0≥3.1 km且H45 dBz-H-20≥-0.5 km、6—8月H45 dBz-H0≥2.0 km且H45 dBz-H-20≥-1.2 km、VIL≥30 kg·m-2、DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3时，预报有冰雹发生，预报提前12～102 min；(3)当回波具有弱切变特征、45 dBz回波顶高≥7.5 km、2—5月H45 dBz-H0≥3.1 km且H45 dBz-H-20≥-0.5 km、6—8月H45 dBz-H0≥2.0 km且H45 dBz-H-20≥-1.2 km时，可预报有冰雹出现，预报提前18～54 min；(4)若除去飑线和下击暴流回波，当回波的VIL≥30 kg·m-2、DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3时，可预报有冰雹出现，预报提前12～54 min。此外，还总结了冰雹云的生命期特征等，并利用2012年发生的冰雹天气过程检验了预报指标。

中文关键词: 天气预报，冰雹，统计特征，垂直剖面，飑线

Abstract:Based on the air sounding data, the CIND3830 CC CINRAD data and surface observation data, the hail event processes seen in Puer and Xishuangbanna during 2004-2011 are analyzed. The results show that: (1) hail can be forecasted 60 min in advance when initial and developing features of hail cloud appear in the radar echo images. (2) Hail can be forecasted 12 to 102 min earlier before the event occurs, if echo composite reflectivity ≥55 dBz, width ≥ 12.0 km, gradient ≥ 15 dBz·km-1, H45 dBz ≥ 7.5 km, H45 dBz-H0 ≥ 3.1 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥ -0.5 km during February-May, H45 dBz-H0 ≥ 2.0 km and H45 dBz-H-20 ≥ -1.2 km, VIL ≥ 30 kg·m-2, DVIL ≥ 3.0 g·m-3 during June-August. (3) If the echo shows the features of weak shear, echo top in 45 dBz≥7.5 km, H45 dBz-H0≥3.1 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥-0.5 km during February-May, H45 dBz-H0≥2.0 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥-1.2 km during June-August, hail can be forecasted with 18-54 min in advance. (4) In addition to squall line and downburst, hail can be forecasted 12-54 min earlier if VIL≥30 kg·m-2, DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3. Besides, this paper summarizes the characteristics of hail cloud lifetime, and tests forecast indice by using the hail process in 2012.

keywords: forecast, hail, statistic feature, vertical profile, squall line

文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41075072)和中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2013 063）共同资助

作者	单位
段鹤	云南省普洱市气象局，普洱 665000 云南大学大气科学系,昆明 650091
严华生	云南大学大气科学系,昆明 650091
马学文	云南省普洱市气象局，普洱 665000
罗庆仙	云南省普洱市气象局，普洱 665000
刘建平	云南省普洱市气象局，普洱 665000

Author Name	Affiliation
DUAN He	Puer Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Puer 665000 Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091
YAN Huasheng	Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091
MA Xuewen	Puer Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Puer 665000
LUO Qingxian	Puer Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Puer 665000
LIU Jianping	Puer Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Puer 665000

引用文本：
段鹤,严华生,马学文,罗庆仙,刘建平,2014.滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究[J].气象,40(2):174-185.
DUAN He,YAN Huasheng,MA Xuewen,LUO Qingxian,LIU Jianping,2014.Study of the Method for Hail Forecasting and Warning in Southern Yunnan[J].Meteor Mon,40(2):174-185.