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气象:2013,39(7):861-873
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2012年贵州暴雨的中尺度环境场分析及短期预报着眼点
Mesoscale Ambient Field Analysis of Torrential Rains and the Forecast Key Points in Guizhou in 2012
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投稿时间:2013-01-17    修订日期:2013-05-24
中文摘要: 利用NCEP每日4次1°×1°格点分析资料、FY 2E逐时TBB资料、MICAPS格式高空、地面观测及贵州省区域自动站降水资料对2012年发生在贵州的15个暴雨日进行分类。分类的原则是从地面冷空气影响的角度来把握,文章归纳出2012年出现的三类主要的暴雨过程:辐合线锋生型暴雨、辐合线锋生+冷锋型暴雨、梅雨锋西段暴雨。利用MICAPS 3强天气分析工具对三类暴雨的典型个例开展了中尺度环境场分析,并基于“配料”的思路分析了三类暴雨的水汽条件、稳定度条件及触发抬升条件。最后根据不同环境场提出了各类暴雨过程的预报着眼点,为今后的暴雨预报提供借鉴和参考。
Abstract:Based on NCEP reanalysis data, FY 2E black body temperature TBB data, MICAPS types data, and the automatic station data in Guizhou, 15 torrential rains are classified into three types mainly. They are the convergence line frontogenesis type, the convergence line frontogenesis and cold air type, and the western Meiyu front type. Mesosclae ambient field analysis is used in each type of torrential rains to hold main influence systems. At the same time, the ingredients based forecasting methodology is used to analyze the water vapor and stability conditions as well as the uplift conditions in the extremely heavy rains. By means of analysis, we find the key points in different types of heavy rains. Those points are useful reference for the forecasting of heavy rains in Guizhou in future.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40965004和40930951)、中国气象局南方暴雨团队项目和贵州“两高”沿线特色农业气候精细化区划与气象灾害防控(黔科合重大专项字[2011]6003号)共同资助
引用文本:
杜小玲,2013.2012年贵州暴雨的中尺度环境场分析及短期预报着眼点[J].气象,39(7):861-873.
DU Xiaoling,2013.Mesoscale Ambient Field Analysis of Torrential Rains and the Forecast Key Points in Guizhou in 2012[J].Meteor Mon,39(7):861-873.