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气象:2013,39(4):486-493
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滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量插值中的应用
(1.中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029;2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;3.国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Application of the Moving Window Ordinary Kriging Method in Precipitation Interpolation
(1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;3.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2012-01-19    修订日期:2012-12-04
中文摘要: 利用2009年全国2200个观测站降水量资料,使用滑动窗口的普通克立格方法对降水量资料进行格点化估计。针对滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量格点化应用中存在的问题,设计了3种技术处理的试验方案。比较了全局搜索与方位邻近方法的误差,讨论了最大影响半径及屏蔽效应对插值效果的作用。提出了方位邻近法的样本点选择策略,结果表明,相对传统滑动窗口的普通克立格方法较常使用的全局搜索法而言,方位邻近法显著降低了计算资源的耗用,同时又具有较高的插值精度,特别是在站点密集地区有突出的优势;试验结果也表明:变程为4°~5°的经(纬)线弧长时,在方位邻近法下,我国大部分区域有较好的插值效果;屏蔽效应弱,ε取值为0.1时,降水量插值准确率较高,随着ε增大,插值误差也逐渐增大。
Abstract:Based on daily precipitation data of 2200 observation stations over China in 2009, precipitation at grid point is estimated by the method of moving window ordinary kriging and three technical experiments are designed in this article. The interpolation errors are compared between the overall search method and direction neighborhood method in the moving window ordinary kriging. The different effects of maximum influence radius and shielding on the interpolation error are also discussed. The sample point selection strategy of the direction neighborhood method is put forward to sort data points. The results show that compared with the overall search method for the traditional moving window ordinary kriging (MWK), direction neighborhood method has the notable advantages of more computational efficiency and high accuracy especially in the areas with dense sites. The results also show that good interpolation effect can be attained within the range from 4° to 5° meridional (zonal) arc length for most areas; and the shielding effect of precipitation is weak. Further more, better accuracy for precipitation estimation is presented when the ε value is equal to 0.1, but it is likely to get worse with the increase of ε value.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106027和GYHY201106010)共同资助
引用文本:
熊敏诠,2013.滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量插值中的应用[J].气象,39(4):486-493.
XIONG Minquan,2013.Application of the Moving Window Ordinary Kriging Method in Precipitation Interpolation[J].Meteor Mon,39(4):486-493.