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投稿时间：2011-12-26 修订日期：2012-08-28
投稿时间：2011-12-26 修订日期：2012-08-28
中文摘要: 风电场风速短临预报是风电预报业务的重要环节之一。选取2011年1、4、7和10月河北及内蒙古两地的两座测风塔观测资料，综合采用均生函数、灰色关联度和多元回归等多种统计预报方法，建立了一套分站点的、15 min动态滚动的未来0~4 h风速短临预报模型。实际对比分析表明，所建模型比传统ARMA模型的月平均预报误差减少了2.2%~10.8%，在实际中具有重要的应用价值。
中文关键词: 风速短临预报， 均生函数， 风电场
Abstract:After analyzing the strong randomness of the observed wind speed during January, April, July and October 2011 both in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, a nowcasting model of wind speed based on mean generation function (MGF), gray relational analysis and multivariate linear regression is presented, which is used to predict the future 0-4 h wind speed every 15 min. Taking the cycle of wind speed and the closed cycles between the predictors and predictand, the parameters of the nowcasting model based on MGF are determined. Based on the observed data from the wind tower in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, the applicability of the nowcasting model in wind speed is elaborated. The results show that the forecast accuracy of the nowcasting model based on MGF is improved significantly compared with the performance of the traditional autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Therefore, the model itself has a high value of practical application.
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基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206054和GYHY201006035）及国家国际科技合作项目（2010DFA62830）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 常蕊 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081 |
| 朱蓉 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081 |
| 柳艳香 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081 |
| 何晓凤 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081 |
引用文本：
常蕊,朱蓉,柳艳香,何晓凤,2013.基于均生函数的风电场风速短临预报模型[J].气象,39(2):226-233.
CHANG Rui,ZHU Rong,LIU Yanxiang,HE Xiaofeng,2013.Nowcasting Model of Wind Speed Based on Mean Generating Function for Wind Farms[J].Meteor Mon,39(2):226-233.
常蕊,朱蓉,柳艳香,何晓凤,2013.基于均生函数的风电场风速短临预报模型[J].气象,39(2):226-233.
CHANG Rui,ZHU Rong,LIU Yanxiang,HE Xiaofeng,2013.Nowcasting Model of Wind Speed Based on Mean Generating Function for Wind Farms[J].Meteor Mon,39(2):226-233.