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投稿时间：2011-10-24 修订日期：2012-08-13
投稿时间：2011-10-24 修订日期：2012-08-13
中文摘要: 选用2008、2009和2010年5—10月的云顶亮温、云顶亮温梯度、水汽云图、总云量和云分类等云图资料，雷达基本反射率资料及自动站1 h降水量资料，采用BP神经网络建立预报模型、传统Z I关系及云分类Z I关系，对距昆明雷达站大于20 km、小于150 km区域里且2008年已建有自动站的18个测站进行3 h降水估测研究。通过研究，得到使用BP神经网络建立预报模型估测降水，在与实测降水的误差方面，比使用传统Z I关系及云分类Z I关系估测降水略有减小。本研究也是对综合利用卫星和雷达资料估测降水进行尝试。
Abstract:The 3 h precipitation estimates at the 18 stations in central Yunnan were made by using the data of TBB, TBB temperature gradient, vapour cloud, total cloud cover, cloud classification, radar basic reflectivity and AWS (automatic weather station) rainfall from May to October of 2008-2010, and the analysis was made by using BP neural network modeling forecast model, traditional Z I relations and cloud classification Z I relations. Results show that the false prediction ratio and deviation have been improved by the BP neural network modeling forecast model, and the comparative study is a test on precipitation forecast by the integrated data of radar and satellite.
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基金项目:云南省科技厅项目（2009CA014）和云南省气象局业务能力研究与提升建设专项（YZ201106）共同资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| CHEN Xiaohua | Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034 |
| DUAN Xu | Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Kunming 650034 |
引用文本：
陈小华,段旭,2013.基于卫星和雷达资料估测滇中地区降水量方法研究[J].气象,39(2):203-209.
CHEN Xiaohua,DUAN Xu,2013.Studies on the Precipitation Estimation in Central Yunnan Based on Satellite and Radar Data[J].Meteor Mon,39(2):203-209.
陈小华,段旭,2013.基于卫星和雷达资料估测滇中地区降水量方法研究[J].气象,39(2):203-209.
CHEN Xiaohua,DUAN Xu,2013.Studies on the Precipitation Estimation in Central Yunnan Based on Satellite and Radar Data[J].Meteor Mon,39(2):203-209.