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投稿时间：2011-08-04 修订日期：2011-11-14
投稿时间：2011-08-04 修订日期：2011-11-14
中文摘要: 利用标准序列法，对1971—2000年我国2000多个国家级地面气象站日平均气温进行了插补试验，并用交叉检验方法进行验证，对比了相关性最好和距离最近两种邻近站选取方案的插补结果。试验表明，相关性最好方案的插补精度优于距离最近方案，利用前一方案进行插补时，只需要选择与待插补站日平均气温序列相关性最高的4个邻近站参与计算即可。插补试验结果表明，平均绝对误差约为0.42℃。插补值与实际观测值之间的绝对误差、均方根误差、两者之差在±0.5℃范围内的样本比例，均与邻近站平均距离呈较好的指数关系。
中文关键词: 标准序列法， 日平均气温， 缺测数据插补
Abstract:Based on the daily mean air temperature from 1971 to 2000 observed by more than 2000 national surface stations in China, a standardized method was employed to carry out missing data estimation experiment, and the results were verified by cross validation. Two schemes, the relation optimal scheme and the closest station scheme, which were both used to pick up the adjacent stations, were compared. It showed that the relation optimal scheme was better than the other, and only 4 adjacent stations that are most closely related to the estimated station were necessary for estimation. The results indicated that estimate values in average deviate from true values by 0.42℃. The absolute mean error and root mean square error between the estimation and the actural measurements and the sample ratio with the differences falling in ±0.5℃ were all shown good exponential relationships with the average adjacent station distance.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951600)、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA05090100)和国家气象信息中心青年基金项目“中国地面历史气温序列插补”共同资助
引用文本：
余予,李俊,任芝花,张志富,2012.标准序列法在日平均气温缺测数据插补中的应用[J].气象,38(9):1135-1139.
YU Yu,LI Jun,REN Zhihua,ZHANG Zhifu,2012.Application of Standardized Method in Estimating Missing Daily Mean Air Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,38(9):1135-1139.
余予,李俊,任芝花,张志富,2012.标准序列法在日平均气温缺测数据插补中的应用[J].气象,38(9):1135-1139.
YU Yu,LI Jun,REN Zhihua,ZHANG Zhifu,2012.Application of Standardized Method in Estimating Missing Daily Mean Air Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,38(9):1135-1139.