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气象:2012,38(5):623-628
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广州地区湿球黑球温度指数预报研究
(1.广州市番禺区气象局,广州 511400;2.广州中心气象台,广州 510080)
Study on Forecast of WBGT Index of Guangzhou
(1.Panyu District Office of Meteorology, Guangzhou 511400;2.Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080)
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投稿时间:2011-06-15    修订日期:2011-09-25
中文摘要: 利用广州地区2009年10月至2010年3月的湿球温度、干球温度、黑球温度,以及附近自动气象站相同时刻的温度、风速、湿度资料进行统计分析,在对广州地区湿球黑球温度(Wet Bulb Globe Temperature,WBGT)统计、特征分析的基础上,分别采用昼夜两段模式和分时模式构建出WBGT预报方程。利用WBGT的实测资料,对上述两种预报方程和直接引用的香港天文台WBGT预报方程一同分析预报误差,对比发现:直接引用的香港天文台的预报方程预报效果最差,分时段WBGT 预报模式总体偏差最小;三种预报方法在夜间比白天预报偏差小,昼夜预报法和分时预报法预报偏差不超过1℃,两者对夜间的WBGT预报能力相当,但在白天时段分时预报法明显比昼夜预报法的预报偏差小。据此,文章选取预报效果最好的分时模式建立预报方程,文中最后针对预报方程中温度、相对湿度因子由于预报误差而导致的WBGT预报误差进行了讨论。基于此研究成果,气象部门为第16届亚洲运动会的马术比赛提供了准确、周到的气象服务,为马术比赛的赛事安排及比赛的成功举办提供了重要的决策依据。
Abstract:Based on the observation of web bulb, dry bulb, black globe temperatures, and the simultaneous air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity records of the adjacent AWS of Guangzhou in September 2009 to March 2010, study is carried out of the features of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index of Guangzhou and two kinds of forecasting equations-a daytime and nighttime forecasting method and an hourly forecasting method. Then the forecasting errors of the two kinds of methods together with the initial equation imported from Hongkong Observatory are analyzed, and results show that, the initial Hongkong equation has the biggest error, and the hourly forecasting method constructed based on the hourly fitting has the least error; The three methods all have less errors in nighttime than in daytime, and errors of both daytime and nighttime forecasting method and hourly forecasting method are less than 1℃. Compared with the daytime and nighttime forecasting method, the hourly forecasting method has the similar errors in nighttime and much less errors in daytime. Therefore, based on these, the hourly forecasting method is applied in the meteorological service of the equestrianism of Guangzhou 2010 Asian Games. In the end, the forecasting error of WBGT equation is discussed based on the forecast error of temperature and relative humidity.
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基金项目:广东省科技计划项目(00697331120128016)资助
引用文本:
陈荣,程正泉,黄健聪,2012.广州地区湿球黑球温度指数预报研究[J].气象,38(5):623-628.
CHEN Rong,CHENG Zhengquan,HUANG Jiancong,2012.Study on Forecast of WBGT Index of Guangzhou[J].Meteor Mon,38(5):623-628.