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气象:2012,38(2):147-154
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水文气象研究进展
(1.中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081;2.国家气象中心,北京 100081;3.成都信息工程学院,成都 610225)
Advances in Hydrometeorological Research
(1.CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081;2.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;3.Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225)
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投稿时间:2011-06-23    修订日期:2011-09-30
中文摘要: 从面向流域的定量降水估测与预报、流域水文模型、水文气象耦合预报三个方面系统介绍水文气象研究进展。研究指出,融合天气雷达、卫星遥感及实况降水等多源信息是精细化定量降水估测产品的主要发展方向;采用多模式降水预报集成技术是提高定量降水预报精度的重要途径;分布式水文模型是流域水文模型的发展方向;引入定量降水预报的水文气象耦合预报模式可以延长洪水预报预见期,水文集合预报是水文预报方法的有效解决途径,而数值预报模式与水文模型的双向耦合模式是另一重要发展方向。
Abstract:A review of hydrometeorological research is presented from aspects of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and forescasting (QPF), hydrological model, hydrometeorological forecasting and flood forecasting. The investigation shows that the raingauge radar satellite quantitative precipitation analysis method is the main way for the high resolution precipitation distribution of quantitative precipitation estimation, and the ensemble prediction precipitation system based on NWP multi model is a chief way for the high accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecast. Meanwhile, the distributed hydrological model is the development direction of hydrological model. The incorporation of quantitative precipitation forecasts into a hydrometeorological and flood forecasting system can increase flood forecast lead times. Hydrological ensemble forecasting system is the most popular prediction technique in the world and the bidirectional feedback model combining NWP model and hydrological model is another future development direction.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)2007 6 1)、基于多模式的集合预报的交互式应用技术(GYHY200906007)和基于地理信息系统的水文气象预报技术(GYHY201006037)共同资助
引用文本:
赵琳娜,包红军,田付友,梁 莉,刘 莹,2012.水文气象研究进展[J].气象,38(2):147-154.
Zhao Linna,Bao Hongjun,Tian Fuyou,Liang Li,Liu Ying,2012.Advances in Hydrometeorological Research[J].Meteor Mon,38(2):147-154.