本文已被：浏览 2065次 下载 1858次
投稿时间：2010-07-20 修订日期：2010-12-13
投稿时间：2010-07-20 修订日期：2010-12-13
中文摘要: 利用2007—2008年两年7—10月广东后汛期强对流天气出现时的雷达资料、对应的GRAPES模式资料以及地市台站上报的强对流天气发生的实况，把瞬时大风>17.2 m·s-1、冰雹、龙卷作为强对流发生的依据，对上述数据进行整理。根据广州热带海洋研究所中尺度模式的输出GRAPES资料，结合雷达CAPPI数据，计算单体的各层风速、温度、湿度、有效位能等环境特征量，将单体特征和模式计算的单体环境场要素以及强对流发生实况，通过多元逐步回归方法建立后汛期强对流天气潜势预报方程，据此对发生于广东省后汛期强对流天气（如雷雨大风、冰雹和龙卷风）进行0~1小时临近预报。用预报成功率（POD）、虚假警报率（FAR）和关键成功指数（CSI）衡量方法的预报性能。共有5540个有效样本参与回归计算，31个因子中有12个引入了回归方程，建立的预报方程在阈值取为0.26时，得到的预报成功率POD为0.73，虚假警报率FAR为0.61，关键成功指数CSI为0.338，各项指标均要好于前汛期预报性能；从实际的预报能力来看，在后汛期强对流潜势预报中，后汛期强对流潜势预报方法得到的空报率和漏报率都要低于前汛期，预报效果较好，可用于广东后汛期的强对流天气潜势预报中。
Abstract:The radar data and GRAPES model data and convective weathers such as thunderstorm wind gusts, hails and tornados simultaneously from surface automatic meteorological stations or human observations from July to October in 2007 and 2008 were collected. Outputs of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model of Guangzhou Institute of Tropic and Marine Meteorology of CMA were used to calculate the thunderstorm environment characteristics such as CAPE, winds, temperatures, instabilities etc. NWP variables, radar data together with convective events were incorporated into a statistic development dataset. Based on this dataset and the multiple regression approach, a convective weather potential forcasting method was developed to forecast the probability of a convective cell that could produce convective weathers within 0-1 hour. Scores as POD (probability of detection), FAR (false alarm ratio) and CSI (critical success index) were used to evaluate the performance of the method. The 12 of 31 predictors were chosen into the multiple regression equation. For a threshold value of 0.26, the method for a sample of 5540 cases produces forecast scores as follows: POD=0.73, FAR＝0.61, CSI＝0.338, which are better than results from the early rainy season of Guangdong （April to June） in 2004. This indicates that the convective weather potential forcasting can be a tool to the nowcasting of severe convective weathers in the later flood season of Guangdong.
keywords: convective weather potential, convective cell, Doppler weather radar, mesoscale numerical model
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:广东省气象局科研课题（2008A02）资助
引用文本：
谌志刚,王婷,汪瑛,冯业荣,2011.广东省后汛期强对流天气潜势预报方法研究[J].气象,37(8):936-942.
CHEN Zhigang,WANG Ting,WANG Ying,FENG Yerong,2011.Research on Methods of Convective Weather Potential in the Later Flood Season of Guangdong[J].Meteor Mon,37(8):936-942.
谌志刚,王婷,汪瑛,冯业荣,2011.广东省后汛期强对流天气潜势预报方法研究[J].气象,37(8):936-942.
CHEN Zhigang,WANG Ting,WANG Ying,FENG Yerong,2011.Research on Methods of Convective Weather Potential in the Later Flood Season of Guangdong[J].Meteor Mon,37(8):936-942.