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气象:2011,37(4):497-502
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两种湿球温度估计方法比较及误差分析
(1.湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心, 武汉 430074;2. 湖北省气象局气候变化中心, 武汉 430074)
Two Wet-Bulb Temperature Estimation Methods and Error Analysis
(1.Hubei Meteorological Information and Technology Support Center, Wuhan 430074;2. Climate Change Center of Hubei Meteorological Service, Wuhan 430074)
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投稿时间:2010-02-04    修订日期:2010-07-15
中文摘要: 由于我国地面气象观测系统的自动化,停止了湿球温度要素观测。为解决无湿球温度资料给工程设计带来的问题,分别设计了逼近法和多元回归法估计湿球温度。逼近法利用湿球温度与气压、温度、相对湿度的关系,并通过数值求解方法实现;多元回归法以气压、温度、相对湿度、水汽压等要素为因子,建立估计湿球温度回归方程。基于全国134个基准气象站2001年1年的逐小时观测资料以及湖北省75个站1991—2000年10年的定时观测资料,系统分析了2种湿球温度估计方法的误差。同时也评估了不同通风条件以及湿球结冰对估计湿球温度的影响。结果表明:(1)采用逼近法估计湿球温度误差很小,逐小时误差在±0.1 ℃以内的频率占99.98%,最大误差为0.19 ℃;(2)采用多元回归方法估计湿球温度,误差在±0.4 ℃以内的频率超过99%,其中拔海高度低于2800 m的台站最大绝对误差为0.8 ℃;(3)不同通风条件对湿球温度估计的影响较大,并与相对湿度密切相关。随着相对湿度的增加,通风条件的影响逐渐减小;(4)湿球结冰对湿球温度的估计影响不大。
Abstract:With the automation of surface weather observing system, the observation of wet bulb temperature has been stopped. In order to estimate the wet bulb temperature, the approximation method and multiple regression method are used. Based on the hourly observation data at 134 reference climatological stations throughout China in 2001, as well as those at 75 stations in Hubei Province from 1991 to 2000, the error analysis of two kinds of wet bulb temperature estimation methods is carried out. The results show that: (1) Using approximation method to estimate the wet bulb temperature, its error is very small, and the maximum error is 0.19 ℃; (2) Using multiple regression methods to estimate the wet bulb temperature, the frequency of error within ±0.4 ℃ is over 99%;(3) Different ventilation conditions on the estimation of wet bulb temperature have considerable influences, and they are related with the relative humidity closely. As the relative humidity increases, the impacts of ventilation condition are gradually reduced. (4) Wet bulb freezing on the estimation of wet bulb temperature has no considerable influences.
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基金项目:湖北省气象局基金项目(2009Y02)、华中区域气象中心气象灾害评估科技创新团队建设和湖北省发展与改革委员会核电项目筹备处共同资助
引用文本:
王海军,2011.两种湿球温度估计方法比较及误差分析[J].气象,37(4):497-502.
WANG Haijun,2011.Two Wet-Bulb Temperature Estimation Methods and Error Analysis[J].Meteor Mon,37(4):497-502.