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投稿时间：2009-11-25 修订日期：2010-06-30
投稿时间：2009-11-25 修订日期：2010-06-30
中文摘要: 利用湖北省恩施和金沙两地2009年冬季1、2月土壤、水泥、沥青三种不同下垫面温度和自动气象站的常规气象要素观测，研究冬季三种不同下垫面温度与气温等气象要素之间的关系，建立相应的多元回归拟合公式，并分析路面结冰的气象条件。结果表明：水泥和土壤路面温度变化幅度小于沥青路面温度，且二者变化趋势非常一致。气温是影响路面温度变化最重要的因素之一。通过不同天气条件下的多种气象要素对路温进行多元回归拟合所得计算值与实测值相关系数除金沙站沥青路面为0.88外，均在0.9以上，预测效果较好。此外，路面0 ℃低温与路面积水对结冰产生和维持的密切关系，对业务实践具有一定的指导意义。
中文关键词: 下垫面温度, 回归拟合, 结冰条件, 冬季
Abstract:Based on the observations of three different kinds of underlying surface temperatures and the automatic meteorological sensor measurements during January and February of 2009 winter in Enshi and Jinsha, Hubei Province, this paper studies the relationship of the three kinds of underlying surface temperatures and the air temperature by establishing multi〖HJ*3/7〗ple regressions accordingly with the statistic analysis method as well as the meteorological conditions of icy underlying surface. The results show that the range of soil and concrete road surface temperature is less than asphalt, and the former two variation trends are highly consistent. Air temperature is one of the most important factors influencing the underlying surface temperature. The underlying surface temperature in different weather conditions predicted by multiple regression are well validated, with 0.9 above correlated with observations except for 0.88 of asphalt underlying surface in Jinsha. Besides, the revealed close relationship between the low temperature around 0 ℃ on the underlying surface and the wet state for the road ice development will benefit the meteorological departments for their practical operation to some extent.
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基金项目:科技部科技支撑计划项目南方冰雪灾害天气预测预警评估技术研究2008BAC48B01和江苏省教育厅青蓝工程资助云雾降水物理学与气溶胶研究创新团队项目
引用文本：
李蕊,牛生杰,汪玲玲,吕晶晶,王燕,谢真珍,柯怡明,杨志彪,熊守权,2011.三种下垫面温度对比观测及结冰气象条件分析[J].气象,37(3):325-333.
LI Rui,NIU Shengjie,WANG Lingling,LV Jingjing,WANG Yan,XIE Zhenzhen,KE Yiming,YANG Zhibiao,XIONG Shouquan,2011.Comparison of Three Kinds of Underlying Surface Temperatures and Analysis of the Road Icing Meteorological Conditions[J].Meteor Mon,37(3):325-333.
李蕊,牛生杰,汪玲玲,吕晶晶,王燕,谢真珍,柯怡明,杨志彪,熊守权,2011.三种下垫面温度对比观测及结冰气象条件分析[J].气象,37(3):325-333.
LI Rui,NIU Shengjie,WANG Lingling,LV Jingjing,WANG Yan,XIE Zhenzhen,KE Yiming,YANG Zhibiao,XIONG Shouquan,2011.Comparison of Three Kinds of Underlying Surface Temperatures and Analysis of the Road Icing Meteorological Conditions[J].Meteor Mon,37(3):325-333.