南京市心脑血管疾病的医疗气象预报研究

毛宇清; 尹东屏; 孙宁; 孙燕

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.11.012

气象:2010,36(11):82-87

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南京市心脑血管疾病的医疗气象预报研究

毛宇清¹, 尹东屏², 孙宁³, 孙燕²

(1.南京市气象台，南京 210009;2.江苏省气象台，南京 210008;3.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院，南京 210044)

Research on Medical Meteorological Forecast Models of Cardiovascular Cerebrovascular Diseases in Nanjing

MAO Yuqing¹, YIN Dongping², SUN Ning³, SUN Yan²

(1.Nanjing Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210009;2.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210008;3.College of Atmospheric Sciences， Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)

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本文已被：浏览 1165次下载 2510次
投稿时间：2009-08-26 修订日期：2010-04-03

中文摘要: 以2003年1月至2008年7月南京市某医院的心脑血管逐日就诊人数为样本，首先根据其时间分布特征采用虚拟变量选择包含节假日等的22个非气象因子，然后通过逐步回归法筛选气象因子和非气象因子，得到最终模型的解释变量，采用支持向量机（SVM）回归方法分别构建了南京市心、脑血管疾病预测模型。将就诊人数分为5个等级，通过反查，模型针对心、脑血管疾病在同一等级和差一等级的准确率分别为87.91%和84.62%，实际预测结果较好，证明该模型具有较高的实际应用价值。

中文关键词: 心脑血管, SVM, 虚拟变量, 医疗气象预报

Abstract:Forecast models of cardiovescular and cerebrovescular diseases in Nanjing are separately built. First we select 22 dummy variables including holidays as non meteorological factors according to the time distributive characters of the daily hospital visit numbers from January 2003 to July 2007. Then we choose meteorological and non meteorological factors with stepwise regression method so as to obtain the explanatory variables which are finally used to build forecast models based on the SVM regression method. The daily hospital visit numbers are divided into five grades and the results show that the precisions of grade prediction in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are 87.91% and 84.62% respectively. Therefore, the models perform satisfactorily and can be applied to actual predictions. 

keywords: cardiovascular cerebrovascular diseases, support vector machine(SVM), dummy variables, medical meteorological forecast

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基金项目:江苏省气象科研开放基金项目（K200707）

作者	单位
毛宇清	南京市气象台，南京 210009
尹东屏	江苏省气象台，南京 210008
孙宁	南京信息工程大学大气科学学院，南京 210044
孙燕	江苏省气象台，南京 210008

Author Name	Affiliation
MAO Yuqing	Nanjing Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210009
YIN Dongping	Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210008
SUN Ning	College of Atmospheric Sciences， Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
SUN Yan	Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210008

引用文本：
毛宇清,尹东屏,孙宁,孙燕,2010.南京市心脑血管疾病的医疗气象预报研究[J].气象,36(11):82-87.
MAO Yuqing,YIN Dongping,SUN Ning,SUN Yan,2010.Research on Medical Meteorological Forecast Models of Cardiovascular Cerebrovascular Diseases in Nanjing[J].Meteor Mon,36(11):82-87.