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气象:2010,36(10):114-121
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2009年西北太平洋热带气旋定位和业务预报精度评定
(中国气象局上海台风研究所, 中国气象局上海台风预报技术重点开放实验室, 上海 200030)
Precision of the Tropical Cyclone Positioning and Forecasts over the Western North Pacific in 2009
(Key Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2010-07-07    修订日期:2010-08-30
中文摘要: 依据《台风业务和服务规定》分析2009年热带气旋(TC)业务定位和业务预报精度, 主要包括:6个方法的定位精度, 12个综合预报方法、3个客观预报方法和6个数值预报方法的路径预报精度, 以及4个方法的强度(近中心最大风速, 下同)预报精度评定。 结果表明:各方法的平均定位误差均小于21 km, 平均17.1 km, 较2008年有所改进。 国内综合预报方法的24小时、48小时和72小时路径预报的平均距离误差分别为115.8 km、217.5 km和357.1 km, 与2008年相比有所偏大;客观预报方法略优于综合预报方法, 24小时和48小时预报的平均距离误差分别为113.0 km和211.4 km;4个官方综合预报方法比较发现, 中央气象台对我国近海海域的TC路径预报具有明显优势。 强度预报仍然以统计方法为主, 2009年24小时和48小时近中心最大风速预报的平均误差分别为4.90 m·s-1和7.43 m·s-1, 相比近10年的平均水平, 预报性能没有明显提高。
Abstract:Operational positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific in 2009 are evaluated according to “Regulations on Typhoon Operation and Service”. The evaluations are performed on the positioning of six methods, the track forecasts from twelve integrated, three objective and six numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods, and the intensity forecasts from four methods. The results show that the TC positioning is better than that in 2008, with an average error in all methods 17.1 km and each less than 21 km. The average errors of domestic integrated track forecast in 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h are 115.8 km, 217.5 km and 357.1 km, respectively, which are worse than those in 2008. The objective forecasts are better than the integrated forecasts with the average errors 113.0 km in 24 h and 211.4 km in 48 h. The comparison of the track forecast errors from four official integrated methods shows that National Meteorological Center (NMC) has good performance in TC track forecast in China Seas. The intensity forecasts still rely mainly on statistical methods with the average errors of 4.90 m·s-1 in 24 h and 7.43 m·s-1 in 48 h. Comparing to the average performance in recent 10 years, the intensity forecast has not made obvious improvement.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:40805040;40921160381)资助
引用文本:
占瑞芬,汤杰,余晖,2010.2009年西北太平洋热带气旋定位和业务预报精度评定[J].气象,36(10):114-121.
ZHAN Ruifen,TANG Jie,YU Hui,2010.Precision of the Tropical Cyclone Positioning and Forecasts over the Western North Pacific in 2009[J].Meteor Mon,36(10):114-121.