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气象:2010,36(10):106-109
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卡尔曼滤波方法在稻飞虱发生等级预测中的应用研究
(1.安徽省桐城市气象局, 桐城 231400;2.安徽省气象科学研究所, 合肥 230031)
Application of the Kalman Filtering Method to Riceplanthopper Occurrence Grade Prediction
(1.Tongcheng Meteorological Office of Anhui Province, Tongcheng 231410;2.Anhui Meteorological Research  Institute, Hefei 230031)
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投稿时间:2009-06-19    修订日期:2010-05-18
中文摘要: 利用桐城市2005—2007年逐候田间系统调查的稻飞虱百丛虫量数据,分析影响桐城市稻飞虱发生程度的主要的气象因子。分析发现,旬平均气温、候平均气温与系统调查的桐城市稻飞虱百丛虫量均呈显著的负相关,显示高温对稻飞虱发生具有抑制作用,最适宜的候平均气温为20.5 ℃。应用卡尔曼滤波方法建立稻飞虱发生适宜气象条件等级预测模型,目的在于开展稻飞虱发生的气象条件预警预测,为防虫治虫提供依据。经历史拟合和2008年试报应用,此模型的预测精度较高,可靠性和稳定性都较好,可投入业务应用。
Abstract:Based on the pentad by pentad data of systematic investigation of riceplanthopper population per 100 crowds from 2005 to 2007 at Tongcheng, the main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence grade of riceplanthopper have been analyzed. The results show that: there are significant negative correlations between dekad average temperature, pentad average temperature and the data of riceplanthopper population per 100 crowds, high temperatures have inhibition effects on riceplanthopper population, and the optimum pentad average temperatures for occurrence of riceplanthoppers are 20.5 ℃. The model of forecasting riceplanthopper occurrence by use of Kalman filter has been established, which can forecast the meteorological conditions of riceplanthopper occurrence and provide a basis for pest control. The historical data fitting and test application in 2008 show that the accuracy, reliability and stability of the model are good, therefore it can be applied to agrometeorological operations.
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基金项目:安徽省气象局技术开发专项课题“安徽省主要农作物病虫害发生气象等级预报”项目资助
引用文本:
江胜国,杨太明,程林,张友明,姚筠,2010.卡尔曼滤波方法在稻飞虱发生等级预测中的应用研究[J].气象,36(10):106-109.
JIANG Shengguo,YANG Taiming,CHENG Lin,ZHANG Youming,YAO Yun,2010.Application of the Kalman Filtering Method to Riceplanthopper Occurrence Grade Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,36(10):106-109.