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气象:2010,36(6):122-127
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影响预报员应用先进天气预报技术的因素分析
(1.北京市气象局, 北京 100089;2.美国科罗拉多大学, 博尔德;3.中国气象局北京城市气象研究所, 北京 100089;4.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029)
Influencing Factor Analysis on Weather Forecaster’s Application of Improved Forecast System
(1.Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089;2.Consortium for Capacity Building, University of Colorado, Boulder CO USA;3.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089;4.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)
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投稿时间:2009-10-19    修订日期:2010-03-19
中文摘要: 先进的天气预报技术只有被预报员有效应用才能发挥其重要作用。为了促进预报员应用先进技术,有必要对影响预报员应用先进技术的各方面因素进行分析研究并提出对策,以提升气象服务能力和提高气象服务质量。本研究对短时临近预报新技术产品从无到有、预报员对新技术产品从陌生到接纳应用的整个过程进行连续3年的互动式调查评估,以B08FDP技术产品被预报员在北京2008年奥运气象服务中的应用过程为例,采用问卷调查和深度访谈的方式,通过2006年预报员的需求调查,挖掘出先进的预报技术产品要被预报员接纳和应用所面临的3个突出问题,并进行分析研究提出对策建议反馈给气象部门;通过2007和2008年追踪分析B08FDP 被预报员逐步接受并应用的情况,揭示出要提高预报员对先进技术的应用,就要深入调查预报员需求并给予满足、有针对性地开展预报员培训教育、建立完善预报员与科研人员互动反馈的常态机制。
Abstract:Based on the data obtained from weather forecaster’s needs and application tracking survey with questionnaire and face to face depth interview since 2006 to 2008, the benefits of advanced forecast techniques and improved new products, such as B08FDP products provided during Beijing 2008 Olympics period, were assessed. The three main obstacles preventing weather forecasters from truly using B08FDP products, were drawn from weather forecaster’s needs survey and fed back to weather service authority timely in 2006. Weather forecaster’s needs and application of new advanced forecast techniques were contrastively analyzed, results showed that forecasters had a more noticeably enhanced confidence in and increased satisfaction to the new advanced forecast techniques and improved products during 2008 Olympics than that in 2007. It was found that the improved socioeconomic benefits of the improvement of forecast techniques were affected by the forecaster’s skillful and optimal application of advanced forecast techniques. Therefore, it was crucially important to strengthen the training of forecasters, allowing them to be the master of new forecast techniques, and to build up their confidence in and capability of using the techniques in a conscious manner. At last, some suggestions and recommendations were given for improving the using of advanced weather forecast techniques by weather forecasters.
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基金项目:北京市科技计划公益应用类国家科技计划项目衔接——奥运科技专项:“北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划支持技术研究”(Z0006279040191)资助
引用文本:
段欲晓,王迎春,叶谦,李青春,韩佳芮,李迅,2010.影响预报员应用先进天气预报技术的因素分析[J].气象,36(6):122-127.
DUAN Yuxiao,WANG Yingchun,YE Qian,LI Qingchun,HAN Jiarui,LI Xun,2010.Influencing Factor Analysis on Weather Forecaster’s Application of Improved Forecast System[J].Meteor Mon,36(6):122-127.