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投稿时间:2009-08-07 修订日期:2009-09-17
投稿时间:2009-08-07 修订日期:2009-09-17
中文摘要: 利用1951—2008年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,结合国家气象中心提供的台站降水资料,分析了近30年夏季南亚高压各特征指数年际和年代际变化及其与我国夏季降水异常的联系。结果表明,除脊线外南亚高压面积、强度、东脊点位置和中心位置都存在显著的年代际变化。偏相关显示,当南亚高压面积不变时,东脊点位置与高压强度之间不存在显著的偏相关性。夏季南亚高压东脊点位置与长江流域中游、江淮流域的夏季降水有显著的正相关,与华南夏季降水有着显著的负相关,较其他各指数而言,南亚高压东脊点位置指数与全国夏季降水相关性更好。滑动相关分析显示,南亚高压东脊点位置与我国江淮流域夏季降水的相关性存在明显的转折,由20世纪70年代以前的负相关转变为70年代以后的正相关。分析表明夏季南亚高压东脊点位置指数为研究和预测江淮地区的降水异常提供了一个有利的信号。
中文关键词: 南亚高压, 东脊点异常, 江淮地区, 夏季降水
Abstract:Interannual and interdecadal variations of South Asia high (SAH) and the relation with the summer precipitation of China are studied by use of the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data and observational data at stations given by National Meteorological Center. It is found that all of the parameters of SAH except the ridge line position exist the remarkably interdecadal variations in summer. There is no significant partial correlation between the intensity and the east ridge point (ERP) of SAH when the area is stable. The simultaneous correlation shows that the significant positive correlation occurs between the location of the ERP of SAH and the summer rainfall of the Yangtze Huaihe River Basin (YHB) during 1979-2008, and this correlation has a big change through the sliding correlation analysis, turning from the negative correlation before the 1970s to the positive one. All these exhibit that the position of the ERP of SAH can be considered as a strong signal when studying the precipitation anomaly of the YHB.
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基金项目:财政部/科技部公益类行业专项(GYHY200806011,GYHY200706005)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
胡景高 | 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044; 国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
周兵 | 国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
陶丽 | 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044 |
引用文本:
胡景高,周兵,陶丽,2010.南亚高压特征参数与我国夏季降水的关系分析[J].气象,36(4):51-56.
HU Jinggao,ZHOU Bing,TAO Li,2010.Comparative Analysis of the Relation Between Characteristic Parameters of South Asia High and Summer Precipitation of China[J].Meteor Mon,36(4):51-56.
胡景高,周兵,陶丽,2010.南亚高压特征参数与我国夏季降水的关系分析[J].气象,36(4):51-56.
HU Jinggao,ZHOU Bing,TAO Li,2010.Comparative Analysis of the Relation Between Characteristic Parameters of South Asia High and Summer Precipitation of China[J].Meteor Mon,36(4):51-56.