2008年安徽省雪灾农业影响定量评估研究

姚筠; 马晓群; 许莹; 陈金华

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.1.013

气象:2010,36(1):85-90

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2008年安徽省雪灾农业影响定量评估研究

姚筠^1,2, 马晓群³, 许莹³, 陈金华³

(1.南京大学大气科学学院，南京 210093;2. 安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031;3.安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031)

Study of Quantitative Evaluation of Snow Disaster Caused Agricultural Loss in Anhui Province in 2008

YAO Yun^1,2, MA Xiaoqun³, XU Ying³, CHEN Jinhua³

(1.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093;2. Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031;3.Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031)

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投稿时间：2008-07-01 修订日期：2009-04-09

中文摘要: 分析了安徽省2008年1—2月雪灾的发生特点，和历史上较大雪灾相比，极端最低气温明显高于历次雪灾年。利用实时雪情和灾情资料建立了安徽省单站和全省的农业经济损失定量评估模型，并进行了误差分析和试应用。评估结果表明：单站评估模型的平均相对误差在30%左右，全省评估模型为20%左右，全省评估模型的准确性较高。

中文关键词: 雪灾，农业影响，定量评估

Abstract:The characteristics of snow disaster in Anhui Province during January-February of 2008 have been analyzed. The extreme maximum temperature during snow disaster in 2008 was obviously higher than other snow disasters in history. The separate and total models of quantitative evaluation of agricultural loss in Anhui Province have been established, using real time data of snow condition and disaster situation. The model error has been analyzed and the trial application of the model has also been made. The average relative error of separate model was about 30%, while that of total model was about 20%. The total model was more accurate.

keywords: snow disaster, agricultural loss, quantitative evaluation

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基金项目:中国气象局武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金项目“长江中游区域粮食安全的气候影响评估研究”

作者	单位
姚筠	南京大学大气科学学院，南京 210093；  安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031
马晓群	安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031
许莹	安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031
陈金华	安徽省气象科学研究所，合肥 230031

Author Name	Affiliation
YAO Yun	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093； Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031
MA Xiaoqun	Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031
XU Ying	Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031
CHEN Jinhua	Anhui Meteorological Research Institute, Hefei 230031

引用文本：
姚筠,马晓群,许莹,陈金华,2010.2008年安徽省雪灾农业影响定量评估研究[J].气象,36(1):85-90.
YAO Yun,MA Xiaoqun,XU Ying,CHEN Jinhua,2010.Study of Quantitative Evaluation of Snow Disaster Caused Agricultural Loss in Anhui Province in 2008[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):85-90.