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投稿时间：2008-06-25 修订日期：2009-06-29
投稿时间：2008-06-25 修订日期：2009-06-29
中文摘要: 夏季副高偏弱、位置偏南、中纬度盛行纬向环流以及冷涡活动偏少是造成干旱的主要环
流特征。选用冬季亚洲地区环流指数、北半球极涡位置以及夏季降水的气候特征这三组
预报因子，采用赤峰地区10个旗县站1959—2000年夏季（6—8月）平均降水量资料，依据当
地的气候特点把干旱强度划分为轻度干旱和重度干旱，通过三组因子逐级订正的方法预报干
旱强度。经过2001—2007年7年的实际应用，证实了该方法对干旱强度具有一定的预测能力
。
中文关键词: 环流特征， 干旱强度， 逐级订正
Abstract:The main circulation patterns of the drought can be concluded as follows: the subtropical high weakening and its position northward shifted compared to normal, the mid latitude zonal circulation prevailing and Mongolia cold vortex scanty. Using the Asian circulation index, the northern polar vortex position and climatic characteristics of summer precipitation, based on the data of summer (June to August) precipitation from 1959 to 2000 at 10 meteorological stations in Chifeng, according to local climatic characteristics, the drought intensity was divided into two grades of slight drought and severe drought, and then by the stepwise correcting method, the drought intensity is predicted by use of the above three series of factors. Results verify that the method has the definite ability of forecasting summer drought intensity through the practical utilization from 2001 to 2007.
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引用文本：
程玉琴,张少文,徐玉强,2010.赤峰地区夏季干旱强度预测方法研究[J].气象,36(1):49-53.
CHENG Yuqin,ZHANG Shaowen,XU Yuqiang,2010.Study on the Forecasting Method of Drought Intensity over Chifeng, Inner Mongolia in Summer[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):49-53.
程玉琴,张少文,徐玉强,2010.赤峰地区夏季干旱强度预测方法研究[J].气象,36(1):49-53.
CHENG Yuqin,ZHANG Shaowen,XU Yuqiang,2010.Study on the Forecasting Method of Drought Intensity over Chifeng, Inner Mongolia in Summer[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):49-53.