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气象:2010,36(1):31-40
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交叉相关算法在强对流天气临近预报中的应用
(1.广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022;2.广东省气象台, 广州 510080 ;3.海南省气象局, 海口 570203)
Application Test of TREC Algorithm to Severe Convective Storm Nowcasting
(1.Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022;2.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080;3.Hainan Meteorological Bureau, Haikou 570203)
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投稿时间:2008-05-11    修订日期:2009-10-10
中文摘要: 利用“雨燕”临近预报系统的雷达回波外推算法,对三次强对流个例的3 km CAPPI反射率因子、回波顶和垂直累积液态含水量进行0~1小时外推预测, 将预测结果和组合阈值比较进行强对流天气预警区域预报试验。资料来源于CINRAD SB雷达基数据经RPG算法处理得到的雷达产品数据。所用的方法是在扩展后的交叉相关追踪算法基础上实现雷达回波移动预测。试验结果表明:3 km CAPPI反射率因子、回波顶和垂直累积液态含水量雷达产品与实况有较好的吻合,能较好地预报出回波的形状、变化趋势和移动方向,回波的范围、位置和强度中心与实况相似,外推时间越短,预报效果越好。交叉相关追踪算法外推得到的雷达回波结果在0~1 h内是可用的;外推预测结果经过组合阈值的过滤后,得出的强对流天气预警区域预警结果也是可行的,对强对流天气临近预报有一定指示意义。
Abstract:Using radar echo extrapolation method of the GRAPES based Severe Weather integrated Forecasting Tools (GRAPES SWIFT) of the nowcast system, the 0-1 h ahead extrapolation and forecast are made for the radar products such as reflectivity factor,echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content in three cases of severe convective storms, and we try to forecast the severe convection weather early warning area by comparing with the forecast outcome of the radar data to the threshold. The data come from the radar products derived from the CINRAD SB radar based data which were processed by PRG algorithm. The method is based on the TREC algorithm to get the moving forecast of radar echoes. The result shows that radar products such as 3 km CAPPI reflectivity factor, echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content are approximately coincident with the actuality, which can forecast the shape, change trend and moving direction of the echo, and the range, location and intensity center of the echo are similar to the actuality. The shorter the time of extrapolation is, the better the forecast is. The extrapolated radar echo from the TREC Algorithm is available within 0-1 h, and the forecast to the convection weather early warning area by the extrapolated result which gets through making up the threshold is also feasible, and they all can be used for the severe convective storm nowcasting.
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基金项目:广西青年基金(0991061);广州区域气象中心气象科技攻关项目(GRMC2007B05);广西科技厅攻关项目(08160069)
引用文本:
曾小团,梁巧倩,农孟松,冯业荣,许向春,陈业国,2010.交叉相关算法在强对流天气临近预报中的应用[J].气象,36(1):31-40.
ZENG Xiaotuan,LIANG Qiaoqian,NONG Mengsong,FENG Yerong,XU Xiangchun,CHEN Yeguo,2010.Application Test of TREC Algorithm to Severe Convective Storm Nowcasting[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):31-40.