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投稿时间：2008-06-10 修订日期：2008-10-16
投稿时间：2008-06-10 修订日期：2008-10-16
中文摘要: 目前气象经济学领域探讨气象因子与经济体之间相互动态影响的研究尚不多见，基于
此，采用年平均气温序列及工业产值、GDP、劳动力序列，建立多变量的结构向量自回归模
型（SVAR模型），通过脉冲响应函数来考察气温对南京市工业经济的动态影响，并用方差分
解法揭示其相互影响程度。结果表明总体上气温升高对南京工业有负面影响，但是这种负面
作用是趋缓的，平均每年南京工业产值的3.1%受到气温升高带来的负面影响；同时南京工业
经济发展对当地气温升高确实存在促进作用，平均每年南京工业经济发展对本地的气温升高
的贡献率有4.4%。研究也说明SVAR模型不失为研究气象因子对经济体影响的可行方法。
Abstract:Presently, it is unfamiliar to see the research of dynamic influences
between meteorological factors and economic systems. Thus, first, by using the a
nnual temperature, industry production value, GDP and labour force data, a multvariable SVAR model is built. Then, the dynamic impacts between temperature and industry economy are analyzed through impulse response function (IRF) method. At last, a variance decomposition technique is adopted to investigate the influence degree. The results show that temperature rising has a negative effect on the industry economy of Nanjing as a whole, but it tends to be unconspicuous, about 3.1% of the industry production value is affected by the negative influence resulting from temperature rising every year. And the positive effect from industry economy developing to the temperature rising is remarkable, the annual contribution rate is about 4.4%. It proves that the way introduced in this paper on the basis of SVAR model is a reasonable and useful method to study the impacts between meteorological factors and economic systems.
keywords: SVAR (structure vector autoregression) temperature impulse response function(I
RF) variance decomposition
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金“全球气候变暖的碳减排压力下我国制造业发展研究”（70873063）； 2008年行业专项《气象服务效益评估方法与技术研究》（GYHY200806017）
引用文本：
孙宁,李廉水,2009.基于SVAR模型的气温变化对南京市工业经济的影响研究[J].气象,35(10):90-96.
Sun Ning,Li Lianshui,2009.Study of the Impact Resulting from Temperature Variance on the Nanjing Industry Economy on the Basis of SVAR Model[J].Meteor Mon,35(10):90-96.
孙宁,李廉水,2009.基于SVAR模型的气温变化对南京市工业经济的影响研究[J].气象,35(10):90-96.
Sun Ning,Li Lianshui,2009.Study of the Impact Resulting from Temperature Variance on the Nanjing Industry Economy on the Basis of SVAR Model[J].Meteor Mon,35(10):90-96.