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气象:2009,35(7):10-15
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近45年来河北省极端降水事件的变化研究
(1.河北省保定市气象局, 071000;2.河北省承德市气象局;3.河北省气候中心;4.中国科学院大气物理研究所)
Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events Change for Hebei Province
(1.Baoding Meteorological Office, Hebei Province, 071000;2.Chengde Meteorol ogical Office, Hebei Province;3.Climate Center of Hebei Province;4.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chines e Academy of Sciences)
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投稿时间:2008-04-14    修订日期:2009-03-13
中文摘要: 利用河北省1961—2005年逐日降水资料,采用通用的极端气候指数,分析了近45年河北省极 端降水事件频率变化的时空特征。结果表明,全省平均年最大日降水量呈下降趋势,1980年 为由多向少的转折点;强降水日数和暴雨日数变化不大,但南部平原地区一般减少,北部山 地区域多有增加,暴雨日数和强度在1990年代中后期显著增加;降水日数有较明显减少,南 部和东南部平原减少更显著;降水日数的减少主要是中、小雨(雪)日数减少造成的。这些 结果说明,河北省强降水日数和暴雨日数在降水日数中的比重有增大趋势,强降水量和暴雨 降水量在总降水量中的比重可能增加了。这种相对增加趋势主要发生在1990年代中期以后
Abstract:By using daily precipitation data of Hebei Province, from 1961 to 2005 and the e xtreme precipitation indices developed by WMO/CCL and CLIVAR, the temporal and s p atial characteristics of change of extreme precipitation events in the province were analyzed. Results show that the average maximum one day precipitation unde rgoes a decreasing trend, especially in the south of Hebei Plain, with 1980 bein g the abrupt year; Days with intensive precipitation as defined by R95%  and heav y precipitation as defined by RM日 more or less remain unchanged over the perio d analyzed, in spite of the fact that the stations of northern Hebei Plateau gen erally witness an increase, and those of the south a decrease; An obvious upward trend of days with intensive and heavy precipitation exists in late 1990s.The results indicate that average maxi mum one day precipitation, days with precipitation and annual precipitation amo unt experience similar trends of decrease, but extreme precipitation events incl uding days with intensive and heavy precipitation see no significant change. The se imply that the proportion of the extreme precipitation events in the total pr ecipitation days, and probably the proportion of extreme precipitation amount in the total annual precipitation, might increase over period 1961-2005 in the pro vince. The increase dominantly occurs after mid 1990s.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB400504);国家自然科学基金(407750 48)资助
引用文本:
高霞,王宏,于成文,戴新刚,史丽红,2009.近45年来河北省极端降水事件的变化研究[J].气象,35(7):10-15.
Gao Xia,Wang Hong,Yu Chengwen,Dai Xingang,Shi Lihong,2009.Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events Change for Hebei Province [J].Meteor Mon,35(7):10-15.