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投稿时间：2008-07-26 修订日期：2009-01-10
投稿时间：2008-07-26 修订日期：2009-01-10
中文摘要: 为提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平，利用1950—2005年西北太平洋热带气旋（ TC）和表层水温(SST)资料，分析了西北太平洋TC生成位置分布的一般气候特征，季节、年 际变化特征及其与局地SST之间的关系，同时还探讨了TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间的关 系。结果表明，西北太平洋存在4个TC高频源地，分别是南海中北部偏东洋面、菲律宾以东 附近洋面、关岛附近洋面和马绍尔群岛附近洋面，其中关岛附近洋面TC发生数最多，是TC发 生的一个主要源地。TC生成位置分布存在显著的季节和年际变化特征，这种变化与局地SST 存在密切的关系，局地SST升高，TC生成位置偏西、偏北，反之，则偏东、偏南。同时发现 ，TC生成位置西北边界与月平均SST的27.5℃等温线具有较好的匹配关系，绝大多数TC都发 生在月平均SST≥27.5℃的海区。TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间存在一定的关系。TC生成 位置偏东偏南，其发展强度相对较强，路径偏东偏南，可导致影响我国南部海区和日本东部 沿海的TC个数增加；TC生成位置偏西偏北，其发展强度相对较弱，路径偏西北，可导致影响 我国东部和北部沿海的TC个数增加。
Abstract:Based on the relevant reference data of the tropical cyclone (TC) in North West Pacific (NWP) regions and the sea surface temperature (SST) from 1 950 to 2005, the general climatic features of the TC in NWP, the seasonal and inter annual variations and the relationship with SST were analyzed. The TC int ensity, track, the formation regions and their relations were als o investigated. In NWP there are four areas where TCs frequently occur, i.e., th e northeastern area of South China Sea, eastern Philippine Sea, adjacent sea are as of t he Guam and the Marshall Islands. Among them the Guam area is the main origin wh ere the TC frequently occurs. The seasonal and inter annual variations of TC ov e r NWP are obvious and closely associated with the local SST. The TC formation re gions shift westward and northward in warm years of SST and eastward and southwa rd in cold years. The northwest line of the TC formation location is well matche d to the monthly mean SST isotherm of 27.5℃. Most of TCs are formed in the area s where the monthly mean SST is equal to or higher than 27.5℃. The intensity an d the track of TC are associated with the TC formation regions. When the TC form ation regions move westward and northward, the TC intensity is lower and the TC tracks move northwestward, the number of TCs affecting eastern and northern Chin a seas may be increased. On the contrary, when the TC formation regions move eas tward and southward, the TC intensity is higher and the TC tracks move eastward and southward too, and the number of TCs affecting the southern China seas and t he seas of Japan may be increased accordingly.
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基金项目:江苏省中青年学术带头人培养基金和江苏省气象灾害重点实验室项目(KLME0501 02)共同资助
引用文本：
杨亚新,邱新法,2009.西北太平洋热带气旋源地变化特征及与局地海表温度的关系[J].气象,35(5):83-90.
Yang Yaxin,Qiu Xinfa,2009.Variation Features of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Region in NWP and the Relations with Local SST [J].Meteor Mon,35(5):83-90.
杨亚新,邱新法,2009.西北太平洋热带气旋源地变化特征及与局地海表温度的关系[J].气象,35(5):83-90.
Yang Yaxin,Qiu Xinfa,2009.Variation Features of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Region in NWP and the Relations with Local SST [J].Meteor Mon,35(5):83-90.