一次西南涡路径预报偏差分析及数值模拟

王新敏; 宋自福; 张霞; 闫小利; 鲁坦; 王明欢

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.5.003

气象:2009,35(5):18-25

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一次西南涡路径预报偏差分析及数值模拟

王新敏^1,2, 宋自福³, 张霞², 闫小利³, 鲁坦², 王明欢⁴

(1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081;2.河南省气象台;3.河南省焦作市气象局;4.武汉暴雨研究所)

The Analysis of Forecast Deviation of the Southwest Vortex Track and Numerical Simulation

Wang Xinmin^1,2, Song Zifu³, Zhang Xia², Yan Xiaoli³, Lu Tan^1,2, Wang Minghuan⁴

(1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;2.Meteorological Observatory in Henan Province;3.Jiaozuo Meteological Office;4.Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan)

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投稿时间：2008-10-21 修订日期：2009-03-18

中文摘要: 2008年7月21—23日，在川东的西南涡移出后东北上。参考各数值模式对22—23日西南涡路径预报后，河南省气象台于21日发布暴雨预报，出现了落区偏差。为加深对西南涡移动路径机理的认识，利用常规和NCEP资料，从大气环流、热力、动力等方面对这次西南涡移动路径特征进行探讨；对数值预报产品作天气学检验；利用WRF模式对本次过程进行模拟。结果表明：（1）这次西南涡呈现南掉—东北上—东东北再东北上的曲折路径；（2）低涡结构显示了中尺度特征，涡度轴向、K指数等对低涡的移动路径有指示意义；（3）由于过于依赖数值预报，加之对东北南下冷空气影响考虑不足，是造成这次低涡路径预报偏差的主要原因；（4）WRF模式对这次低涡路径有较好的预报能力。

中文关键词: 西南涡路径偏差冷空气涡度数值预报产品数值模拟

Abstract:The southwest vortex (21-23 July, 2008) moved northeastward from east of Sich uan. Henan Meteorological Observatory published rainstorm forecast at 21st with reference to several numerical weather prediction (NWP) commonly used, and the f orecast showed regional deviation. For the further understanding on the mechanis m of the moving route of the southwest vortex, it is discussed in some aspects s uch as atmospheric circulation, thermal, dynamics based on the formal and NCEP d atasets. Synoptic test on numerical forecast products has been done, and the pro cess is simulated by WRF. The results show that: (1) the route of the southwest vortex changes sharply, firstly southward, then northeastward, and then eastward , finally northeastward. (2) The structure of the vortex is of mesoscale charact eristics. K index and axial direction of the vortex have instructions on the moving of the vortex. (3) The main reasons of the deviation are more rely on the NW P and less consideration to the influence of the cool air from northeast. (4) Th e forecast of the vortex’s route by WRF is better.

keywords: southwest vortex deviation of track cool air vortex umerical forecast products numerical simulation

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基金项目:本文由中国气象局2009年气象新技术推广项目（CMATG2009YB01)“08年盛夏一次西南涡路径预报偏差分析”资助

作者	单位
王新敏	国家气象中心, 北京 100081；河南省气象台
宋自福	河南省焦作市气象局
张霞	河南省气象台
闫小利	河南省焦作市气象局
鲁坦	河南省气象台
王明欢	武汉暴雨研究所

Author Name	Affiliation
Wang Xinmin	National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 Meteorological Observatory in Henan Province
Song Zifu	Jiaozuo Meteological Office
Zhang Xia	Meteorological Observatory in Henan Province
Yan Xiaoli	Jiaozuo Meteological Office
Lu Tan	National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 Meteorological Observatory in Henan Province
Wang Minghuan	Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan

引用文本：
王新敏,宋自福,张霞,闫小利,鲁坦,王明欢,2009.一次西南涡路径预报偏差分析及数值模拟[J].气象,35(5):18-25.
Wang Xinmin,Song Zifu,Zhang Xia,Yan Xiaoli,Lu Tan,Wang Minghuan,2009.The Analysis of Forecast Deviation of the Southwest Vortex Track and Numerical Simulation [J].Meteor Mon,35(5):18-25.