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投稿时间:2008-03-04 修订日期:2008-09-26
投稿时间:2008-03-04 修订日期:2008-09-26
中文摘要: 利用黄河中游地区三门峡至花园口区间(简称“三花间”区)21个气象站1955—2006年的气温
和降水量资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析、小波变换和Mann-Kendall等方法,探讨了黄河“
三花间”区气温和降水量的年际和年代际变化特征。结果表明:(1)近50多年来“三花间”
区年平均气温的年代际变化为1950年代后期至1980年代为偏冷期,1990年代之后气温明显升
高,冷暖转折的突变点在1994年,2001年以来是近50多年来最暖的时期;年及冬、春、秋三
季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤以冬季增温开始最早,增温最明显。(2)降水量的年代际变化
为1950年代后期至1960年代、2001年之后为多雨期,1970年代至1990年代为少雨期,其中以
1990年代降水最少;各季降水量除冬季外均呈减少趋势,以夏季减少最明显。(3)黄河“三
花间”区气候总体向暖干化方向发展,但2003年之后进入了多雨期,未来几年气候存在着向
暖湿化变化的可能性。
Abstract:By adopting the methods of moving average, trend analysis, wavelet transform and
Mann Kendall method, the characteristics of inter annual and inter decadal c
han
ges of precipitation and temperature in the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou (h
ereafter abbreviated to “Sanhuajian” area) in the middle reaches of Yellow Riv
er are analyzed with precipitation and temperature data of 21 weather stations i
n this area from 1955 to 2006. The results are as follows:Firstly,
the inter decadal change of average temperature is getting warm in the recent
50 more years,the late 1950s to 1980s is a cold period,whereas after 1990s is
a warm period,the transition from cold to warm occurred in 1994.The period fro
m 2001 to now is the warmest;The annual and seasonal mean temperatures in winte
r, spring and autumn all show the trend of increasing, and occurrence of warming
begins especially early and remarkably in winter. Secondly,The inter decadal
c
hange of precipitation is that the late 1950s to 1960s and the years after 2001
are rainy periods, whereas 1970s to 1990s is a less rain period, and particularl
y, the precipitation in 1990s is the least;Seasonal precipitations all show the
trend of decreasing except winter, and it decreases especially remarkably in su
mmer. Thirdly,the main trend of climate change in “Sanhuajian” area is becom
i
ng warm and dry,but the fact that more precipitation appears after 2003 may ind
icates the possibility of warming and humidifying in the coming years.
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基金项目:本文得到河南省气象科学技术研究项目“气候变化对黄河中游三花间水资源影响研究”(z
200607)、河南省科技攻关计划项目“气候变化和旱涝异常对河南水资源的影响”(072102
320006)共同资助
引用文本:
王记芳,程炳岩,朱业玉,李荣,2009.黄河中游“三花间”区气候变化特征[J].气象,35(3):99-106.
Wang Jifang,Cheng Bingyan,Zhu Yeyu,Li Rong,2009.Characteristics of Climate Change in“Sanhuajian”Area in the Middle Reaches of Yellow River[J].Meteor Mon,35(3):99-106.
王记芳,程炳岩,朱业玉,李荣,2009.黄河中游“三花间”区气候变化特征[J].气象,35(3):99-106.
Wang Jifang,Cheng Bingyan,Zhu Yeyu,Li Rong,2009.Characteristics of Climate Change in“Sanhuajian”Area in the Middle Reaches of Yellow River[J].Meteor Mon,35(3):99-106.