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气象:2009,35(3):87-93
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基于定量监测的沙尘暴定量预报方法
(内蒙古自治区气象台, 呼和浩特市 010051)
Sand Storm Quantitative Forecast Method Based on Quantitative Monitoring
(Inner Mongolia Autonomous Meteorological Observatory, Huhhot 010051)
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投稿时间:2008-09-08    修订日期:2008-12-05
中文摘要: 近年来,内蒙古自治区建立了6个沙尘暴监测站,对沙尘天气进行了连续、定量观测,在预 报业务工作中可以得到器测能见度、PM10、TSP等定量数据,为沙尘暴的定量分析和 预报提供了基础条件。选取了2004—2007年间内蒙古地区10次较强沙尘暴天气过程,利用内 蒙古自治区的6个沙尘暴监测站器测资料,结合常规观测资料进行了分析。分析表明:器测 数据具有连续、稳定、定量的优势;但器测数据与现行沙尘天气业务标准存在很大差异,需 要新的分级标准。在现有数据条件下,初步确定了器测能见度、PM10的沙尘天气分级 标准;讨论了沙尘暴形成的定量条件和机制,以沙尘综合指数、摩擦速度等为预报因子建立 了器测能见度、PM10的沙尘暴定量预报方程。该预报方法在2008年的业务试用中预报 效果较好。
中文关键词: 沙尘暴  定量预报  器测能见度  PM10
Abstract:In recent years, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has established 6 sand sto rm inspection stations. A series of quantitative data, such as the instrument m easured visibility, PM10, TSP was obtained from the continuously quantitat ive observation in the sand dust weather. It provides the basic requirement for the sand storm quantitative analysis and forecast. Ten strong sand storm process es in Inner Mongolian during 2004-2007 are chosen, and the instrument measured data of 6 sand storm inspection stations combining with the observati ons are analyzed. The analysis indicates that the instrument measured data has superiority i n continuation, stability and quantification. But it is different from the view of point of the present sand weather service standard. The new grading standard is needed. Under the existing data condition, A sand dust weather grading standa rds is determined initially based on the instrument measured visibilityand PM10. The quantitative condition and the mechanism of the sand storm formation are discussed. The instrument measured visibility, PM10 sand sto rm quantitative prognostic equation is established on the predictor of sand dust composite index, the friction speed and so on. This sand storm forecast method is used in quantitative sand forecast in 2008 and obtained good effect.
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基金项目:科技部社会公益研究专项2005DIB3J108、国家自然科学基金0765001
引用文本:
孙永刚,孟雪峰,宋桂英,孙鑫,云静波,2009.基于定量监测的沙尘暴定量预报方法[J].气象,35(3):87-93.
Sun Yonggang,Meng Xuefeng,Song Guiying,Sun Xing,Yun Jingbo,2009.Sand Storm Quantitative Forecast Method Based on Quantitative Monitoring[J].Meteor Mon,35(3):87-93.