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气象:,():84-89
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北京奥运期间冰雹灾害风险评估
(1.中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,100089;2.北京市人工影响天气办公室, 北京市气象局)
Hail Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster During Beijing Olympic Games
(1.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089;2.Beijing Meteorology Bureau)
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投稿时间:2008-05-08    修订日期:2008-09-23
中文摘要: 采用空间信息技术的评估方法对北京地区奥运期间的冰雹灾害进行风险评估,并从原理、方 法及过程3个方面作了系统的论述。冰雹灾害风险评估基于空间评估模型,综合叠加了以地 形为外界敏感性因素的敏感度因子、以出现概率为主的危险性评估结果及考虑下垫面的人口 、经济、人文分布情况的脆弱性评估结果。评估结果所展现的北京地区奥运期间的冰雹灾害 的风险情况表明:冰雹灾害风险除了与雹源分布有密切关系外,还与城市人口及社会、经济 情况关联,其权重组合计算结果显示北部山区及北京市的中心地带为易受冰雹灾害影响的高 风险或较高风险区域。
Abstract:Because different meteorological disasters have different spatial forms, the lin ear and polynomial models are put forward to carry on the risk assessment of met eorological disaster. Taking hail disaster as example, the comprehensive discuss ion is conducted in these three aspects of principle, method and process of assessment. The spatial evaluation model of hail disaster superimposes sensibility f actor of topography, risk occurrence probability and vulnerability which relates to the distribution of population, economy and humanity in land surface. The te chnology of the geographic information system is adopted to deal with assessment results in spatial visible way. Risk condition of various meteorological disast ers during Olympic Games in Beijing area is embodied in evaluation results. Risk of hail disaster is closely related to distribution of hail source as well as p opulation in urban and situation of society and economy. These also determine thatcentral region in Beijing city is high risk area of hail disaster. Probabilit y distribution of rainstorm, for example, in different intensity grade reflects essentially spatial possibility that corresponding disaster occurs.
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基金项目:中国气象局新技术推广项目“北京奥运期间气象灾害风险评估技术研究 (Z07000100730701)”、北京市优秀人才项目“高影响致灾天气对城市社会经济影响的评 估模型研究(20071D0200800059)”资助。
引用文本:
扈海波,董鹏捷,熊亚军,轩春怡,.北京奥运期间冰雹灾害风险评估[J].气象,():84-89.
Hu Haibo,Dong Pengjie,Xiong Yajun,Xuan Chunyi,.Hail Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster During Beijing Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,():84-89.