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投稿时间:2008-06-11 修订日期:2008-09-26
投稿时间:2008-06-11 修订日期:2008-09-26
中文摘要: 以高影响天气事件作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象电话拨打数据和气象信息
,结合条件价值评估方法(CVM),评估社会公众对高影响天气事件发生时的支付意愿(WTP)。
以西安市为例,分类分析2004—2007年、与公众生活关系密切的高温、热浪、“桑拿天”
、小雨、中雨、大到暴雨、雷暴、雪、雾(霾)和连阴雨等10类高影响天气事件,评估其风险
超越概率、公众风险关注和支付意愿。结果表明,当降水类、高温类、雷暴和雾(霾)等潜在
气象风险源发生时,西安老百姓意愿支付所产生的社会效益年平均值分别约为4973.394万元/
年、1174.854万元/年、311.269万元/年和471.637万元/年。结论有利于定量判断公共气象
服务的社会影响力。
Abstract:By using the information of high impact weather events and dialing num
bers of weather service phone (named 12121),the distribution of estimated meteo
rological attention degrees of general public was calculated. Further more, the
social benefit values of public weather service through willingness to pay (WTP
) are also estimated. Taking Xi’an city as an example, it chooses occurring d
ays of ten high impact weather events closely related to general public from 200
4 to 2007,which are granted as potential meteorological risk resources, i.e. hi
gh temperature,heat wave,sultry weather,scattered precipitation, moderate sho
wer,heavy rain,thunderstorm,snow, fog or haze and consecutively rainy day. Accor
ding to demography information and average local phone charge, the total WTP
values were calculated respectively. The results show that there were approximat
ely 1174.854 ten thousand Yuan/year on temperature weather events, about 4973.39
4 ten thousand Yuan/year on precipitation events, roughly 311.269 ten thousand Y
uan/year on thunderstorm and probably 471.637 ten thousand Yuan/year on fog or h
aze weather. The result is helpful for quantitative judgments about societal inf
luence of public meteorological services.
keywords: CVM (contingent valuation method) meteorological risk public weather service WTP (willingness to pay)
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M53)
引用文本:
罗慧,苏德斌,丁德平,李彩莲,朱海利,2008.对潜在气象风险源的公众支付意愿评估[J].气象,34(12):79-83.
Luo Hui,Su Debin,Ding Deping,Li Cailian,Zhu Haili,2008.Assessment of Willingness to Pay for Potential Meteorological Risk Resources[J].Meteor Mon,34(12):79-83.
罗慧,苏德斌,丁德平,李彩莲,朱海利,2008.对潜在气象风险源的公众支付意愿评估[J].气象,34(12):79-83.
Luo Hui,Su Debin,Ding Deping,Li Cailian,Zhu Haili,2008.Assessment of Willingness to Pay for Potential Meteorological Risk Resources[J].Meteor Mon,34(12):79-83.