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投稿时间：2008-04-02 修订日期：2008-09-26
投稿时间：2008-04-02 修订日期：2008-09-26
中文摘要: 利用类似KALMAN滤波的自适应误差订正方法对中国国家气象中心的中尺度集合预报系统2m温
度预报做二阶矩离散度订正研究。通过对预报结果，尤其是概率预报结果比较详尽的检验分
析，评价二阶矩订正对离散度的调整效果。结果表明：经过二阶矩订正后，2m温度的订正效
果较为显著，集合成员预报的PDF分布比较一致，CRPS也比订正前减小了；预报的离散度得
到合理的增大且与均方根误差较为接近，预报可靠性提高；无论是集合平均预报还是概率预
报，预报能力都明显提高； 另外，针对集合概率预报可靠性的talagrand分布，针对集合预
报分辨能力的roc分析和EV分析，以及概率预报评分bs、bss都从各自的角度证明了误差订正
的效果，订正后预报能力大为提高。
Abstract:Based on 2m temperature forecast products from the mesoscale ensemble forecast
models of NMC/CMA, a study of the 2nd moment bias correction was conduct
ed to correct the spread. The results show that the skill of various forecast mo
dels could be improved, either the mean of ensemble forecast or probabilistic fo
recast. The PDF of each forecast member is much more similar with the others. Th
e CRPS of the corrected forecast is smaller than the raw forecast. The spread of
forecast system is increased reasonably, and closer to the RMS, which means tha
t the forecasts are much more reliable. What’s more, the talagrand diagram repr
esenting for the reliability of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, the ROC and
EV representing for the resolution of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, as well as the BS/BSS score of the ensem
ble probabilistic forecast all reveal improvement of corrected ensemble forecast
.
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基金项目:国家科技攻关计划奥运科技专项项目“北京奥运短时临近预报实时业
务系统开发”（2005BA904B05）资助
引用文本：
马清,龚建东,李莉,李应林,2008.中尺度集合预报的二阶矩离散度订正研究[J].气象,34(11):15-21.
Ma Qing,Gong Jiandong,Li Li,Li Yinglin,2008.Study on the 2nd Moment Spread correction of Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):15-21.
马清,龚建东,李莉,李应林,2008.中尺度集合预报的二阶矩离散度订正研究[J].气象,34(11):15-21.
Ma Qing,Gong Jiandong,Li Li,Li Yinglin,2008.Study on the 2nd Moment Spread correction of Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):15-21.