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投稿时间:2008-02-28 修订日期:2008-08-25
投稿时间:2008-02-28 修订日期:2008-08-25
中文摘要: 目前,国家级旬、月极端高温预测的业务工作尚未展开,国家级极端高温短期气
候预测系统的研制为中国高温预测业务提供了一个有效平台。该系统以百分位相对阈值和35
°C、38°C绝对阈值作为高温阈值指标,应用月动力预测模式、动力预测与统计降尺度相结
合、物理统计相似三种不同的方法,预测未来1~40天的旬、月极端高温发生概率及高温日
数
,定期滚动发布预测产品。并以相关系数为衡量指标,应用交叉检验方法对三种方法的预测
效果进行分析,结果表明不同方法高相关区的空间分布存在差异,在进行高温预测时,应综
合各方法高相关区的预测结果给出综合预测意见。对2007年7月极端高温预测个例分析表明
三种方法均有一定的预测技巧。
Abstract:At present, national prediction system for dekad and monthly extreme h
igh temperature has not been undertaken. Here, a national forecast system for ex
treme high temperature was developed. It is a powerful platform that regularly i
ssued three kinds of predicting products at website with three methods of dynami
cal monthly forecast model, statistical downscaling and physical analogue using
percentile values at 90%, 95% and 99% as relative thresholds and 35℃or 38℃
as absolute thresholds. The products consist of probability prediction, the numb
er of day exceeding 35℃ or 38℃ involving 7 periods: 1-10 day, 11-20 d
ay, 21-30 day, 1-30 day, 6-35 day and 31-40 day. The spatial distribution of correlatio
n coefficient between hindcast and observation shows that high value areas are d
ifferent among these methods. So it is hard to say which method is better than o
thers. Thus three predicted results should be considered as well as distribution
of correlation coefficient before final extreme high temperature prediction. Th
e predictions by these methods for July, 2007 were generally close to the observ
ation. But the result by statistical downscaling method is better, and that by D
ERF is worse relatively.
keywords: extreme high temperature prediction dynamical monthly forecast model statistic
al downscaling physical analogue
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局2007年多轨道业务建设项目“高温热浪监测预警业务系统”
作者 | 单位 |
刘绿柳 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
孙林海 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
廖要明 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
朱艳峰 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
邹旭恺 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
王有民 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
颜京辉 | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
引用文本:
刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,朱艳峰,邹旭恺,王有民,颜京辉,2008.国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制及应用[J].气象,34(10):102-107.
Liu Lüliu,Sun Linhai,Liao Yaoming,Zhu Yanfeng,Zou Xukai,Wang Youmin,Yan Jinghui,2008.Development and Application of National Prediction System for Extreme High Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,34(10):102-107.
刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,朱艳峰,邹旭恺,王有民,颜京辉,2008.国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制及应用[J].气象,34(10):102-107.
Liu Lüliu,Sun Linhai,Liao Yaoming,Zhu Yanfeng,Zou Xukai,Wang Youmin,Yan Jinghui,2008.Development and Application of National Prediction System for Extreme High Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,34(10):102-107.