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投稿时间：2008-04-01 修订日期：2008-04-10
投稿时间：2008-04-01 修订日期：2008-04-10
中文摘要: 为了解中期数值预报模式性能，提高中期预报水平，针对2007年12月至2008年2月T213模式9
6小时预报产品进行天气学检验，并与ECMWF、日本模式96小时预报性能进行了对比分析。结
果表明，三个模式的96小时预报对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流形势演变和重大调整有较强的
预报能力，对于转折性天气的预报有较强的指示意义。综合分析来看，ECMWF模式对西风指
数、850hPa温度变化、500hPa环流形势及南支槽的预报误差最小，日本模式次之。
Abstract:In order to understand the efficiency of the products from a medium range forec
asting model, the performance of T213 model for 96hr medium range numerical for
ecasting was verified during the period of Dec. 2007 to Jan. 2008 comparing with
ECMWF model and Japan model.The result shows that the three models all have go
od performances for evolution and major adjustment of the large scale circulati
on pattern in Asia high and middle latitude area. ECMWF model is better than the
othe
r two models for forecasting westerly index,the temperature of 850hPa,the circul
ation of 500hPa and southern branch trough, especially the event occurred during
10th-16th Jan. 2008, but the T213 model and Japan model have errors
in terms of the precision of the intensity,position of the main system.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Tian Weihong | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
田伟红,2008.2007年12月至2008年2月T213、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(5):101-107.
Tian Weihong,2008.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec.2007 to Feb.2008 [J].Meteor Mon,34(5):101-107.
田伟红,2008.2007年12月至2008年2月T213、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(5):101-107.
Tian Weihong,2008.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec.2007 to Feb.2008 [J].Meteor Mon,34(5):101-107.