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气象:2008,34(5):64-74
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应用多普勒雷达制作近海台风临近预报技术研究
(1.浙江省气象台,杭州 310017;2. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;3.浙江省气象科学研究所;4.浙江省气象局;5.浙江省温州市气象局)
Research on Tropical Cyclone Fine Nowcasting System Based on Doppler Radar
(1.The Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310017;2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather CAMS;3.Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute;4.Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau;5.Wenzhou Meteorological Office)
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投稿时间:2007-02-11    修订日期:2008-02-22
中文摘要: 台风、局地暴雨等灾害性天气是浙江省夏季汛期的主要气象灾害。利用新一代天气雷达探测 的重要特征,将浙江省近年来收集的台风雷达资料进行试验研究,应用雷达基数据数字组网 3 D数据,通过回波自动识别与跟踪、动态定量估测降水、台风旋转环流结构快速诊断分析 等技术,进行省级台站基于雷达的台风临近预警预报技术的应用研究。根据台风主体回波螺 旋带形状的结构,及其回波系统(团)移动过程中又具有明显的旋转性运动的特点,对交叉 相关法进行了适当改进。首先,在矩心跟踪法进行强对流回波团识别跟踪的基础上,利用多 普勒
Abstract:Typhoon and local rainstorm are the primary meteorological disaster in summer fl ood season in Zhejiang. The principal method is based on the primary radar infor mation in the three dimensional variation assimilation for typhoon nowcasting t echnique and research. Automatic echo identification, echo tracking and precipi tation estimation are developed by researching the radar information of last yea rs and modulating the parameter for local. The cross correlation technique and centroid method are used for strong convection echo identification and tracking. The moving direction tendency of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters and th e real time data of auto precipitation station are considered. The dynamic pre cipitation is evaluated by applying the best probability windows to get the mo st suited Z I relationship. Through the retrieved variation correction, the rainstorm nowcasting within 1 hour is made by use of linear extrapolation. Cons idering the requirement of typhoon short time forecast service, the system cont ains the rapid diagnostic analysis for typhoon center and mesoscale circulation pattern based on GBVTD (Ground base Velocity Track Display method). As a workin g platform,the system can be used for disaster weather forecasting and service.
keywords: CINRAD  typhoon  nowcasting  GBVTD method
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基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项“台风暴雨强回波识别跟踪预警技术研究CMATG2006Y09”、浙江省 科技重点“小流域致灾强风暴监测预警技术研究”及“浙江省强台风精细预报关键技术研 究及应用2007C13G1610002”项目联合资助。
引用文本:
赵放,冀春晓,任鸿翔,杨军,朱景,2008.应用多普勒雷达制作近海台风临近预报技术研究[J].气象,34(5):64-74.
Zhao Fang,Ji Chunxiao,Ren Hongxiang,Yang Jun,Zhu Jing,2008.Research on Tropical Cyclone Fine Nowcasting System Based on Doppler Radar [J].Meteor Mon,34(5):64-74.