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气象:2008,34(1):94-99
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热带气旋降水客观分离业务化探讨
(1.上海台风研究所, 200030;2.国家气候中心)
Discussion on the Objective Partitioning Operation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
(1.Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA 200030;2.National Climate Center)
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投稿时间:2007-05-29    修订日期:2007-12-07
中文摘要: 针对中国热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)降水的分离问题, 利用国家气候中心任福 民等提出的客观天气图分析法(Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique,简称OSAT)对2 005年影响我国强度达到台风以上的6个TC降水进行了客观分离,并与人工的主观识别方法进 行了对比。结果表明,OSAT客观方法由于对TC外围流系最大范围半径D1设置偏大,导致原 来的判别测站数比主观方法多,其他系统或TC和其他系统共同作用的降水被包含进来,所以 误判率较高,但遗漏少。为了减少误判率,将OSAT方法中的D1根据实况环流场给出,判别 准确率得到了提高,但会出现判别结果比主观方法略偏少的现象,原因是TC和其它系统(冷 锋、西风槽等)的相互作用结果没有考虑进去。总的来说,对D1的设定由原来根据TC强 弱度给出常参数方案组改为根据实况观测、云图等资料获得后,提高了识别效果。使用该客 观方法识别TC降水的精确度能满足业务需求,可以投入业务使用。
Abstract:For partitioning precipitation of tropical cyclone(TC) in China, an Objective Sy noptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)was used on six TCs affecting China in 2005. Th e results were compared with those results using subjective technique. It showed that some station observations caused by other weather systems or interaction b etween TC and other weather systems were included because the radius D1 of cir culation around maximum TC area was set too big. So the distinguish error is hig h, but missed unlikely. In order to reduce the distinguish error, a method of se tting D1 by real time observations circulation radius and cloud and so on was proposed. Finallythe distinguish error was reduced, but missed a little more . The new result showed that rain station numbers partitioned by improved objectiv e technique could be less than that of subjective technique because the effect o f interaction between TC and other weather systems (cold front, west wind trough etc.) was not taken into account. Shortly, the accuracy of partition was improv ed after D1 was reset by integration of observation data and cloud image and s o on instead of intensity of TC. The precision of TC precipitation partitioned b y the objective method could be accepted in operation. It could be applied in op eration.
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基金项目:本研究得到中国气象局上海台风研究所基金项目“中国台风降水客观分离方法及 其应用研究”资助
引用文本:
鲁小琴,赵兵科,张维,任福民,2008.热带气旋降水客观分离业务化探讨[J].气象,34(1):94-99.
Lu Xiaoqin,Zhao Bingke,Zhang Wei,Ren Fumin,2008.Discussion on the Objective Partitioning Operation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):94-99.