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投稿时间：2007-08-01 修订日期：2007-10-24
投稿时间：2007-08-01 修订日期：2007-10-24
中文摘要: 对河南省春秋季降水以及云状特征的分析表明，河南省春秋季降水大多为层状云或波
状云产生的稳定性降水，因而可采用对河南省分区分级进行降水预测的方法来确定适合飞机
人工增雨的天气过程以及短期增雨区域。利用T213数值预报产品，运用逐步回归建立分区分
级预报方程，并针对个别准确率较低的区域进行后处理。结果表明，用此方法对人工增雨作
业进行指导是可行的。
Abstract:The analysis of precipitation and cloud form in spring and autumn in Henan
Province shows that the rainfall in these two seasons is mostly generated from s
tratiform cloud and wave cloud. So the method of precipitation classification fo
recast for sub regions in Henan Province can be used to ascertain the time and
region that are fit for artificial precipitation enhancement by aircraft. By usi
ng the products from NWP model T213 and successive regression, predictive equati
ons for precipitation classification forecast in different sub regions are set
up. In addition, a post processing method is used to improve the forecast of th
e sub region which is of low accuracy. The results show that this method can be
a guidance for artificial precipitation enhancement.
keywords: artificial precipitation enhancement stratiform cloud and wave cloud precipit
ation classification forecast for sub regions
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:“十五”河南省重大科技攻关项目“河南省云水资源开发利用技术研究与示范
”（编号：0522030400）
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| He Zhe | Henan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003 |
| Liu Jinhua | Henan Meteorological Bureau |
| Bu Yalin | Henan Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center |
引用文本：
贺哲,刘金华,布亚林,2007.河南省层波状云系飞机人工增雨作业条件短期预测方法[J].气象,33(12):69-74.
He Zhe,Liu Jinhua,Bu Yalin,2007.Short-range Forecast of the Conditions of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement from Stratiform Cloud and Wave Cloud in Henan Province[J].Meteor Mon,33(12):69-74.
贺哲,刘金华,布亚林,2007.河南省层波状云系飞机人工增雨作业条件短期预测方法[J].气象,33(12):69-74.
He Zhe,Liu Jinhua,Bu Yalin,2007.Short-range Forecast of the Conditions of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement from Stratiform Cloud and Wave Cloud in Henan Province[J].Meteor Mon,33(12):69-74.