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投稿时间：2007-09-26
投稿时间：2007-09-26
中文摘要: 对2007年6—8月T213模式进行天气学检验，并与欧洲中心ECMWF模式及日本模式进行了
比较。结果表明：3种模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来
看，ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报误差最小，最接近实况，日本模式和T213模式稍差，
稳定性不如ECMWF模式，特别是T213模式对0709号台风圣帕路径及强度的预报与实况相差较
大，而ECMWF模式及日本模式预报较为准确。
Abstract:Actually, the products of numerical forecast have been broad applied to weather
forecast operation in China. In order to improve the ability to use the products
of T213, ECMWF and Japan models, the performance of T213, ECMWF and Japan model
s for 96h medium range forecasting during the period from June to August 2007 w
as
verified and compared in the paper. The results show that the three models have
a good performance in aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evoluti
on and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitudes. As a whole, ECMWF model is
more classic in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T213 and Jap
an mo
dels. Especially, T213 model has a large error in predicting path and intensity
of typhoon SEPAT, whereas ECMWF and Japan models are relatively accurate.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Li Yong | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
李勇,2007.2007年6—8月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,33(11):93-100.
Li Yong,2007.Verification of the Medium range Forecast Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2007[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):93-100.
李勇,2007.2007年6—8月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,33(11):93-100.
Li Yong,2007.Verification of the Medium range Forecast Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2007[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):93-100.