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气象:2007,33(10):15-22
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高影响天气事件公众关注度的风险评估
(陕西省气象局, 西安 710015)
Risk Assessment on Meteorological Attention Degree on the High Impact Weather Events of Xi'an General Public
(Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau, Xi'an 710015)
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投稿时间:2007-06-06    修订日期:2007-09-03
中文摘要: 天气气候异常变化对我国国民经济、人民生产生活的影响日益增大,开展气象风险评估迫在 眉睫。基于模糊数学和信息扩散理论,把高影响天气事件作为气象风险源,综合应用12121 气象信息服务电话拨打次数的信息,计算高影响天气事件的风险概率,以及社会公众对不同 高影响天气事件关注度风险水平和关注人数。以西安市为例,分类分析2004—2006三年期间 与公众生活关系密切的7类高影响天气事件:高温、热浪、桑拿、小雨、中雨、大到暴雨和 雷暴,以此为风险源因子,挑选对应天气当日的12121信息电话拨打次数为统计样本,计算 得出各类高影响天气事件发生的超越概率和风险关注度,计算出社会公众不同等级的关注度 风险水平,这对提高社会公众对各种气象风险的防灾减灾意识和判断公共气象服务影响力有 指导意义。最后还给出了各类风险源的原始数据统计值与应用公式计算值的拟合对比,验证 结果比较令人满意。
Abstract:Abnormal changes of weather and climate have increasing influences on economic d evelopment and life of general public in China. It is very necessary to carry ou t an efficient meteorological risk assessment. Based on theory and methods of fu zzy maths and information diffusion,it integrates info of high impact weather e vents and dialing numbers of weather service phone (named 12121), the method of risk estimation probability of high impact weather events and meteorological att ention degrees of general public are given. Take Xi'an city as background,it ch ooses occurring days of five high impact weather events i. e, 〖JP2〗heat wave, thunderstorm, heavy shower,shower and scattered precipitation which are closely related to general public, and granted as risk resources, from 2004 to 2006 as statistical samples. The dia ling numbers of Xi'an weather service phone 12121 on the corresponding days are also gathered. Then,the risk estimation probabilities of high impact meteorolog ical events is estimated. Based on them and related demographic and telecommunic ation information,the meteorological attention degrees of general public at dif ferent grades are calculated. It is help for judging the influence, supplementin g the system of public meteorological services and improving the awareness of g eneral public to prevent meteorological-related risk as well.
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基金项目:陕西省气象局科技创新项目。
引用文本:
罗慧,张雅斌,刘璐,李彩莲,姚东升,宁海文,2007.高影响天气事件公众关注度的风险评估[J].气象,33(10):15-22.
Luo Hui,Zhang Yabin,Liu Lu,Li Cailian,Yao Dongsheng,Ning Haiwen,2007.Risk Assessment on Meteorological Attention Degree on the High Impact Weather Events of Xi'an General Public[J].Meteor Mon,33(10):15-22.