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气象:2007,33(9):94-97
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均生函数预报模型的改进实验
(1.广西百色市气象局, 533000;2.广西气象局)
Experimental Investigation on the Improved Prediction Models with Average Generation Functions
(1.Baishe Meteorological Office, Guangxi 533000;2.Guangxi Autonomous Region Meterological Bureau)
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投稿时间:2006-09-15    修订日期:2007-06-18
中文摘要: 为了提高对百色市主汛期月降雨量的预报准确率,基于均生函数预报方法,应用 百色市1951 —2006年6、7、8月份的月降雨资料,通过“短序列建模”和“残差订正”方法进行改进, 得到原序列、短序列预报模型及其相应的残差订正预报模型。各改进模型均使预报精度和准 确率得到了不同程度的提高,尤其是MGFAFMs模型的预报Ts比MGFFM模型提高了25%。 研究结果表明:在月雨量预报业务实践中采取均生函数4模型集合预报方式将是一种很好的 选择。
Abstract:In order to increase the forecasting accuracy, techniques of sh ort series modeling and residual correction are improved and the prediction mod els of original series, short series and corresponding residual correction are developed on the basis of prediction technique of averaged generation functions. The used data are the precipitation data of Baishe City from June to August in 1951 20 06. The results show that the forecasting accuracy and precise of these improve d models have raise to some extent, especially the Ts of MGFAFM model is 25% hig her than MGFFM. The operational use of a consensus forecast with four models to the monthly rainfall amount is a good choice.
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唐毓勇,蒋国兴,周礼杏,黄淑娟,2007.均生函数预报模型的改进实验[J].气象,33(9):94-97.
Tang Yuyong,Jiang Guoxing,Zhou Lixing,Huang Shujuan,2007.Experimental Investigation on the Improved Prediction Models with Average Generation Functions[J].Meteor Mon,33(9):94-97.