Abstract:Based on the thunderstorm climatic statistical characteristics in Jiao zuo area, thunderstorm trend prediction was made by means of T213 numerical pred iction products. The double criterion was adopted to modify the K exponent. The thunderstorm stability definition index was presented, then the thunderstorm pot ential prediction was made. According to historical data 1984-2000, thirty physi cal fields were calculated, 1°×1°grid data was formed and thunderstorm intens ity grades discrimination method was developed. Combined with the data of satel lite, radar, and lightning locator, thunderstorm monitoring and warning system w as established .The system is realized by visual basic language. Classified weat her types, calculated physical quantities, extracted forecast index and discrimi nated forecast method were automatically finished by using the MICAPS data of 8: 0 0 and 20:00. Therefore, early warning conclusion and regions of thunderstorm oc currence were output. The system performed well in routine forecasting during 20 05-2006.