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投稿时间：2007-05-10 修订日期：2007-06-12
投稿时间：2007-05-10 修订日期：2007-06-12
中文摘要: 用尽可能非专业的词语，向预报员介绍数值预报的成就、问题与应用。在简单回顾数值预报
发展历史的基础上，重点分析了近十几年来数值预报的主要技术进步与有待解决的问题，对
比了数值预报与主观经验预报的各自优势与不足，提出了优势互补对于提高业务预报的重要
性。还分析了数值预报的技术进步对于数值预报产品释用的影响，以及预报员参与数值预报
发展的可能性与必要性。
Abstract:The status and applications of numerical weather predictions are intro
duced to weather forecasters in operational posts in a way of non specialist te
rminology. Following a historical review with the stress on the achievements and
unsolved issues in the latest decade, the merits and shortcomings of forecasts
by numerical models and experiences based methodologies are compared. The combi
nation of the superiorities of two kinds of approaches is emphasized. The impact
s of technical developments of numerical weather prediction on the interpretatio
n and application of model outputs, and the possible roles the forecaster may pl
ay in the further development of NWP are also discussed.
keywords: numerical weather prediction forecaster
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Xue Jishan | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
薛纪善,2007.和预报员谈数值预报[J].气象,33(8):3-11.
Xue Jishan,2007.Weather Forecaster and Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,33(8):3-11.
薛纪善,2007.和预报员谈数值预报[J].气象,33(8):3-11.
Xue Jishan,2007.Weather Forecaster and Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,33(8):3-11.