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气象:2007,33(7):60-66
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关于台风麦莎影响北京预报失误的思考
(北京市气象台, 100089)
Review on the Forecast of Effect of Typhon Maisha on Beijing
(Beijing Meteorological Observatory,100089)
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投稿时间:2006-12-09    修订日期:2007-05-15
中文摘要: 2005年第9号台风麦莎在浙江台州登陆后北上,北京市气象台于8月6日发布预报,认为受台 风影响北京将出现暴雨天气过程。实况是北京城区只出现了小到中雨,郊区为中到大雨,只 有东北部地区出现了暴雨。为了加深对华北台风暴雨的认识,应用常规气象资料、卫星云图 对这次预报不理想的原因进行了分析。总结出的原因主要是(1)关于台风路径的数值预报 误差较大,预报路径比实况偏西200km以上。(2)台风麦莎的结构不对称,云系和强降 雨主要分布在台风的东部和北部,而北京处于台风的西北部。(3)台风外围的东南急流只 出现在120°E以东,强度较弱。(4)华北高压的存在阻挡了河套西部冷空气东移,因而不 能形成中低纬度系统相互作用的形势。针对上述分析提出了预报着眼点和改进预报服务的建 议。
Abstract:Typhoon Maisha(0509) moved northward after landing on Zhejiang. Beijing Meteorol ogical Observatory predicted that the typhoon would bring heavy rainfall to Beij ing. Actuall y, there was the heavy rain only in the northeastern Beijing and the moderate ra in in the most of the city. To understand typhoon heavy rainfall in Huabei deepl y, an analysis of this unsuccessful forecast is performed by using the conventi onal meteorological data and the satellite images. The results show that (1) the numerical forecast of the typhoon track had an error, (2) the typhoon maintain ed asymmetry structure and heavy rain occurred only in the east and north of the typhoon, (3) the weak southeast jet occurred mainly in the east of 120°E and (4) since Huabei high pressure obstructed cold air from the great band of Yello w River moving eastward, the interactionbetween low latitude and middle latitude synoptic system could not formed. In addition, it provides some instructions for the forecast and service of typhoon heavy ra infall in Beijing. 
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基金项目:本文获北京市气象局预报员专项资助。
引用文本:
李津,王华,郭金兰,2007.关于台风麦莎影响北京预报失误的思考[J].气象,33(7):60-66.
Li Jin,Wang Hua,Guo Jinlan,2007.Review on the Forecast of Effect of Typhon Maisha on Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,33(7):60-66.