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投稿时间：2006-06-09 修订日期：2007-02-09
投稿时间：2006-06-09 修订日期：2007-02-09
中文摘要: 参考了现阶段国内外的短期气候预测质量评估办法，根据短期气候预测业务
的发展需要，提出了一种新的短期气候预测质量评估办法，并对近10年（1994年以
来）辽宁省短期气候预测资料进行客观评定，把原办法的评定结论与之对比分析。结果表明
：新办法的指导思想、评分原理以及预报评分规则和标准等方面均优于原办法，更符合实际
，客观性更强，突出了气候预测的趋势性，提高了异常事件趋势的预测能力，能更好地反映
当前短期气候预测业务水平。在绝大多数情况下，新办法评定的月、季、年尺度气候预测质
量较原办法有明显提高，其中，全年降
Abstract:Based on domestic and foreign short term climate forecast quality appr
aisal method at the present stage, according to operation development needs, a n
ew quality appraisal method for short term climate forecast was put forward. th
e nearly 10 years short term climate forecast results for Liaoning Province sinc
e 1994 were evaluated objectively by using the new method. By contrast with the o
riginal appraisal conclusion, the results show that the new method is superior t
o the original one, and can well reflect the level of current short term climat
e forecast.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Li Ji | Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment，Shenyang 110016 |
| Jin Wei | Yingkou Meteorological Office |
| Zhao Lianwei | Liaoning Provincial Climate Center |
引用文本：
李辑,金巍,赵连伟,2007.辽宁省近10年短期气候预测质量评估检验[J].气象,33(4):82-87.
Li Ji,Jin Wei,Zhao Lianwei,2007.Quality Assessment Test on Short term Climate Prediction of Liaoning Province for the Recent 10 years[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):82-87.
李辑,金巍,赵连伟,2007.辽宁省近10年短期气候预测质量评估检验[J].气象,33(4):82-87.
Li Ji,Jin Wei,Zhao Lianwei,2007.Quality Assessment Test on Short term Climate Prediction of Liaoning Province for the Recent 10 years[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):82-87.